Brian McCann is a free agent after the 2013 season. (it would take a cataclysmic injury for the Braves not to pick up the 12 million dollar option they hold for next)
He’s a fan favorite and face of the franchise. Widely considered the best catcher in the game, he’s an incredibly valuable commodity.
With that, it may be considered blasphemous, but from a realist’s perspective the Braves should not sign him to a long term deal.
McCann’s value is intrinsically tied to his position at catcher. Simply put, catcher is the hardest every day position to find, so quality catchinghas great valuable. The problem with locking him up long term is that he won’t last at catcher. No solid metric exists for catcher defense, but all empirical observations point to his abilities behind the plate being below average at best with poor caught stealing rates and excessive passed balls.
How long he stays at catcher is the key to determining his value, and an unknown. Injury problems, and the fact players with unathletic, wider set bodies do not age well does not bode well.
What does McCann the non-catcher look like? His complete lack of speed/range would limit him to first. He’s probably dedicated enough to be serviceable defensively. But going from the weakest offensive position to the strongest kills his value almost completely. His .285/.357/.484 puts him in the top 3 in all statistics for catchers since his 2005 debut. Put these numbers at first base and he doesn’t rank in the top 15 over the same time span. His numbers might see an uptick with more playing time/not having to worry as much about defense, but age related decline (exacerbated by the nonathletic body) could eat those gains up.
McCann is a 15-20 million dollar a year player as the best catcher in the game. As a middle of the pack, aging first baseman he’s a 7-8 million dollar a year player, tops.
The Braves already have a full time first baseman and another player who should be at first in Freeman and Uggla. The Braves also have a solid catching prospect in Christhian Bethancourt, although he is far, far, far from a sure thing.
The market for catchers is uncertain, although bullish. Brian has a reasonable case to ask for much more than Yadier Molina’s 5/75 deal. Mike Napoli will set the market for catchers this offseason, and McCann will surely ask for more than what he gets. Brightening his certain fortune is that almost none of the traditional free spenders (BOS, NYY, LAD, LAA, TEX, CHC, etc…) have catchers locked down. A lot of teams and a lot of money will be chasing the Atlanta catcher. More than 100 million over 6 plus years is a reasonable guess. This is more than a mid market should give an 30+ catcher.
In all likelihood, McCann’s ideal situation would be similar to Napoli’s current one in Texas where he rotates between catcher, first and designated hitter.
Maybe Brian beats the odds and can stay at catcher for several years. Or maybe he can’t adjust to a new position and his team is stuck with a catcher that can’t catch and gives the opposition free reign on the base path. (see: the end of Mike Piazza’s career)
McCann took considerably less to sign the long term deal he’s under now. Maybe he’d consider a 4 year deal worth 12-15 each and options built in on games caught. It’s worth a shot. But for him to take what it makes sense for him to return with the Braves, he’d be leaving tens of millions on the table, something that almost nevr happens As I’ve stated earlier the Braves will have a lot of difficult choices with young players hitting arbitration/free agency.
Brian McCann is one of my all time favorite Braves. While I’d love for him to spend his entire career in Atlanta, my pragmatic side says it may not be in the team’s best interest. There will surely be an uproar among Braves fans if Mac signs elsewhere. When you’re a fan of a team your allegiance needs to be to the team’s success, not individual players. I’d love to see Mac behind the dish for the Braves, but I’d rather see see salary better allocated to allow the team to win a World Series.
