#28

Third base/outfield trade options

Hey, this actually makes a lot of sense
Josh Willingham

Alex Gordon

Franklin Gutierrez

Denard Span

Ben Zobrist

Justin Upton

Drew Stubbs

Mike Mosutakas

Makes sense in theory, but will never, ever happen so quit asking me

David Wright

Would work well, but they’ll want a ton

Yoenis Cespedes

Dayan Viciedo

Starling Marte

Desmond Jennings

John Mayberry Jr.

Dexter Fowler

Jacoby Ellsbury

Nelson Cruz

Chase Headley

Adrian Beltre

Mark Trumbo

Mike Olt

Josh Rutledge

Matt Carpenter

Makes sense on some level, but I don’t see it happening

Carlos Gomez

CoCo Crisp

Hunter Pence

Alberto Callaspo

Jeff Keppinger

Emilio Bonifacio

J.J. Hardy

They’d work in a vacuum, but they’re lefties and probably not good enough to overcome the fact they’re lefties and we have too many lefties

David Murphy

Andy Dirks

Jason Kubel

Roger Bernadina

Seth Smith

Daniel Nava

Charlie Blackmon

Curtis Ganderson

Michael Brantley

Gerardo Parra

Michael Saunders

Tyler Colvin

Shin Soo Choo

Logan Morrison

Norichika Aoki

Matt Joyce

Josh Reddick

Wil Venable

David DeJesus

Lucas Duda

Pedro Alvarez

Young guys we’d have to work on

Chris Coghlan

Ryan Kalish

Peter Bourjos

Ben Revere

Chris Nelson

Contract doesn’t make sense unless they eat a ridiculous amount of it

Carlos Quentin

Alfonso Soriano

Carl Crawford

Cameron Maybin

Alex Rios

Jayson Werth

Nick Markakis

Andre Ethier

Michael Cuddyer

Jose Tabata

Aramis Ramirez

Ryan Zimmerman

Alex Rodriguez

Not happening, for money or other reasons

Ryan Braun

Carlos Gonzalez

Matt Holliday

Mike Morse

Mike Trout

Andrew McCutchen

Adam Jones

Bryce Harper

Austin Jackson

Chris Young

Brett Jackson

Colby Rasmus

Lorenzo Cain

Giancarlo Stanton

Jose Bautista

Carlos Beltran

Jay Bruce

Dominic Brown

Miguel Cabrera

Evan Longoria

David Wright

Will Middlebrooks

David Freese

Brett Lawrie

Manny Machado

Kyle Seager

Lonnie Chisenhall

Pablo Sandoval

Josh Vitters

Todd Frazier

Jon Jay

Maybe as a cheap bench option

Laynce Nix

Jesus Guzman

Chris Heisey

Jordany Valdespin

Casper Wells

Rajai Davis

J.D. Martinez

Quentin Berry

Alex Presley

Mark Kotsay

Sam Fuld

Bryan Peterson

Justin Ruggiano

Craig Gentry

Justin Maxwell

Alejandro De Aza

Tony Campana

Mike Carp

Andres Torres

Kiek Nieuwenhuis

Chris Denorfia

Mike Baxter

Nate Schierholtz

Travis Snider

Ryan Sweeney

Gregor Blanco

Brennan Boesch

Kevin Frandsen

Joaquin Arias

Cody Ransom

Pedro Ciriaco

Luis Cruz

Scott Moore

Greg Dobbs

Placido Polanco

Ryan Wheeler

Eduardo Escobar

Jayson Nix

Josh Donaldson

Casey McGehee

Luis Valbuena

Jack Hnnahan

Donnie Murphy

Elian Herrera

Brent Lillibridge

Not better than what we have

Steve Pearce

Drew Sutton

Vernon Wells

Chone Figgins

Jason Bay

Trayvon Robinson

Xavier Avery

Nyjer Morgan

Jordan Schafer

Gorkys Hernandez

Collin Cowgill

Jarrod Dyson

Shane Robinson

Ezekiel Carrera

Shelley Duncan

Fernando Martinez

Jeff Francoeur

Don Kelly

Brian Bogusevic

Jerry Hairston Jr.

Matt Dominguez

Michael Martinez

Brooks Conrad

Orlando Hudson

Danny Valencia

Ian Stewart

Andrew Brown

Tony Gwynn Jr.

Mauro Gomez

Alex Liddi

#27

Third base/outfield free agent options

Hey, this actually makes a lot of sense
Angel Pagan

Cody Ross

Not a perfect fit, but could work on cheap one year deals if other things fall through

Shane Victorino

Torii Hunter

Only if the price is right (them taking less than I expect they’ll get)

Delmon Young

B.J. Upton

Nick Swisher

Ryan Ludwick

Kevin Youkilis

Probably out of our budget

Josh Hamilton

Michael Bourn

No, no, no

Melky Cabrera

Nate McLouth

Better suited for bench than starting

Jonny Gomes

Scott Hairston

Reed Johnson

Andruw Jones

Eric Chavez

Ty Wigginton

Brandon Inge

Maicer Izturis

Ichiro Suzuki

Darnell McDonald

Not better than what we have

Travis Buck

Austin Kearns

Carlos Lee

Juan Pierre

Juan Rivera

Drew Sutton

Alfredo Amezaga

Rick Ankiel

Grady Sizemore

Brian Bixler

Travis Buck

Matt Diaz

Kosuke Fukudome

Xavier Nady

Mitch Maier

Eric Hinske

Miguel Cairo

Jose Lopez

Drew Sutton

Alberto Gonzalez

Mark DeRosa

Placido Polanco

Scott Rolen 

Payroll

Atlanta Braves Payroll Breakdown

2012- coming off the books

Chipper               13

Lowe                   10

McCann               8.5

Bourn                   6.75

Jurrjens                5.5

Diaz                     2

Ross                   1.625

Hinske                  1.5

Wilson                 1

Durbin                  .9

Livan                    .75
Sheets                  1.2*
Moylan                 .  2

               toral       52.95

*Sheets and Moylan contracts are estimate on prorated portion of full contract

Free agents not coming off the books (paid for by other teams)

Maholm                4.75

Baker                   1.38

Johnson               1.15

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2013 Commitments

Upton                 15.45**

Uggla                 13
McCann             12

Hudson              9
Maholm              6.5
Johnson            1.6

Laird                  1.5
Janish                ???

Total                  59.05

**I have included all of his signing bonus in to 2013's salary. Working to learn how this will be paid out

2012 Arbitration eligible                           projected                    

Prado                    4.75                                     7.7                            

EO’F                     2.75                                     3.8

Heyward              .56                                        3.5                          

Venters                .53                                        1.4                          

Medlen                .49                                         2

Cristhian              .49                                         .7
Janish                   .85                                        .9
                total       17.2      total (appx)     20

2012 Non Arbitration elibgible
Avilan, Beachy, Constanza, Delgado, Francisco, Freeman, Gearrin, Kimbrel, Minor,  Pastornicky, Simmons, Walden

Projected total: 83

Money left to spend: 6-1

Positions needed  Third base/left fielder, multiple bench players, possibly bullpen depth

Updates:
10/31/2012: Updated to reflect McCann, Hudson, Maholm options being exercised
11/03/2012: Switched arbitration projections to MLB Trade Rumors model. They know what they're doing more than I do.
11/28/2012- Added Laird
12/01/2012- Added Upton, removed Hanson, Moylan
12/10/2012- Added Johnson, seeking figures for Janish

#26

Atlanta Braves Payroll Breakdown

2013 Commitments

Uggla                   13 2013 

2013 options

Maholm              6.5 or .5 buyout

Hudson              9 or 1 buyout

McCann             12 or .5 buyout

2012- coming off the books

Chipper               13

Lowe                     10

McCann               8.5

Bourn                    6.75

Jurrjens               5.5

Diaz                        2

Ross                       1.625

Hinske                  1.5

Sheets                  1.2*

Wilson                  1

Durbin                  .9

Livan                     .75

               toral       52.95

*Sheets contract is estimate on prorated portion of full contract

Free agents not coming off the books (paid for by other teams)

Maholm                4.75

Baker                   1.38

Johnson               1.15

2012 Arbitration eligible                           projected                        comp

Prado                    4.75                                     6.5                           Young

EO’F                     2.75                                     3.5

Heyward              .56                                         3.2                          Sandoval, Gardner

Tommy                 .54                                         3                            Masterson, Porcello, Gonzalez

Venters                .53                                         1.7                          Motte, Romo, Clippard

Medlen                .49                                          3

Cristhian              .49                                          1

                total       15.35     total (appx)        21.9

As of right now the Braves only have 15 million and one player guaranteed to 2013 (Uggla’s contract plus the three buyouts). Given an estimated payroll of 90 million, and a bevy of big contracts coming off the books, on paper there’s a lot of wiggle room. This is a little misleading as arbitration raises to players like Prado, Heyward, and others will eat up a large chunk of that. Still, the Braves have an amazing amount of flexibility and figure to be as aggressive as they have been since 2009, maybe even more so.

With that being said, the Braves have a number of holes to fill. Center field, either left or third, a right handed reliever, bench help, and a resolution to the catcher situation are all a must. Additionally a front end of the rotation starter would be nice. There’s a lot of money to spend but it will go quickly.

The options for Hudson and Maholm seem to be givens. A solid 3 starter and an innings eater for those prices seem reasonable. Factor in arbitration raises to Prado, O’Flaherty, Heyward, Hanson, Venters, Medlen, and Cristhian and consider Kimbrel, Avilan, Minor, Freeman, and Simmons as pre arbitration gimmes, suddenly the Braves payroll is in the 53 million dollar range, with 10 roster spots to be filled.

The 10 spots remaining would be: center field, left field/third base, starting catcher, backup catcher, utility infielder, backup outfielder, another bench bat, and two/three bullpen spots. A few of these will likely be filled with cheap in house options like Pastornicky, Constanza, and Gearrin. This leaves 30-35 million for 7 spots. Some will be cheaper types like Reed Johnson or Jeff Baker, but given we need a legitimate run producer to replace Chipper and a leadoff hitter to fill Bourn’s shoes, we’ll probably end up pinching pennies before long. That said, given last year we had no money to spend, anything will be more intriguing.

The first decision to be made will be the most difficult and possibly contentious. Brian McCann is probably not worth a one year, 12 million dollar contract strictly as a player, but that doesn’t mean the Braves won’t exercise his option. I’ll get more in to this at a later date, but I can really see the team exercising it, declining it, or agreeing to a contract at a lesser amount. If I were GM I’d do the third option, but it’s a tossup. Ross seems likely to return as a part of the catching tandem, though his playing time could vary depending on who the other catcher is.

The possibilities are endless for the remaining spots. The Braves generally focus on trades rather than free agent signings. While the farm isn’t as stocked as it has been, packages built around Julio Teheran or Randall Delgado could bring useful parts. My guess is the Braves will sign a midlevel free agent 5-10 million per season and make a rather large trade. 

The black cloud hanging over Braves finances is that of arbitration raises. Heyward, Medlen, Kimbrel, Freeman and the other young players service time will come due and earn sizable raises in the next three to five years.Spending loosely on free agents now could easily lead to forced dumping of young players in the upcoming offseasons. While going year to year helps you in case a player falls of a cliff (see: Jurrjens, Jair) it might be wise to sit down with young players to see if we can exchange cost certainly and relative discounts in exchange for the youngsters getting guaranteed money.  

#25

End of season roster breakdown

Luis Avilan- in a division with Davis, Duda, Harper, LaRoche, Utley, and Howard, a guy who can get lefties out is a huge asset. Question is if he can get righties out and become a versatile threat like E’OF and Venters, or if he’ll stay a LOOGY. Either way, yet another great cheap bullpen option

Jeff Baker- Wait, he was on this team?

Miguel Batista- See: Baker, Jeff.

Brandon Beachy- He’ll be a great second half pickup. While duplicating his 2012 numbers is unlikely, a Medlen-Beachy-Hudson-Minor top 4 sounds lovely.

J.C. Boscan. Generic 4A catcher. Will likely be back. IF he isn’t there are plenty who can fill the role.

Michael Bourn- He’d be nice to have back, but really don’t see a scenario where him coming back makes sense financially. Really think someone will go crazy on him.

Jose Constanza- He’s a solid 5th outfielde/ pinch running option. He’s a terrible starting outfielder. As long as Fredi understands the difference, he’s nice to have around.

Erik Cordier- Crazy to think we got him for Tony Pena in 2006 and he’s still hanging around. Guessing he’ll be gone to make room for acquisitions.

Randall Delgado- He’s a very valuable asset, but how he’ll be used is in question. My guess is he or Teheran goes in a trade.

Matt Diaz. Diaz will be faced with the option of getting a minor league contract somewhere and fighting for a roster spot or retiring. Not sure which he’d want.

Chad Durbin- After a disastrous start he proved serviceable. Don’t think the Braves will try to catch lightning in a bottle twice, though.

Juan Francisco- The point of having him on this team was to use him when Chipper was off and potentially take over at third. If Prado or someone else is going to play 150+ games at third, he’s stuck in Brooks Conrad- can’t play defense, can’t really hit- purgatory. He’s either the starting third baseman as part of a platoon, or playing somewhere else.

Freddie Freeman- See my previous blog post.

Cory Gearrin- After ignoring him for the first half of the season, the Braves gave him a shot and he did well, so much he beat Moylan and Crishtian for a playoff spot. I still don’t want him facing a lefty with the game on the line, but he and Avilan could be a valuable righty-lefty tag team.

Tommy Hanson- Significant drop in velocity, change in mechanics, and shoulder problems are the three biggest red flags for pitchers and Tommy’s had all of them. I guess he’ll stay because his first time arbitration costs won’t be prohibitive, but his leash couldn’t be shorter. If I had to guess, I’d say he spends much of 2013 in Gwinnett.

Jason Heyward- He’s a beast.

Eric Hinske- See: Diaz, Matt.

Tim Hudson- Don’t see any way his option is not picked up. Excellent middle of the rotation innings eater.

Paul Janish- If Prado is serviceable at short, not really sure a no hit all defense at one position guy is worth a roster spot.

Reed Johnson- Could easily return in a similar role. Or he could leave. Such is the life of a bench player.

Chipper Jones- *tear*

Jair Jurrjens- Only question is if the Braves will wait and non-tender him or just release him to clear room. Somebody will give him a million bucks to see if they can fix him, but it won’t be us.

Craig Kimbrel- I’d say there’s no way he can match this year’s success, but I said that last year. Shelf life for closers is incredibly small… enjoy every second of it.

Paul Maholm- His option is likely to be picked up as 6.5 million for 180+ decent innings is a bargain.

Cristhian Martinez- He’s a tricky case. Was surprised he was left off wild card roster. Assume the Braves think his first year arbitration is a deal.

Brian McCann- Can he get healthy and regain form? That’s the 11,500,000.00 dollar question.

Kris Medlen- He’s going to come back down to earth at some point and take some lumps. That said, he’s as promising as they come.

Mike Minor- the doom and gloomers that demanded his head don’t look so good now. Excellent mid-rotation value.

Peter Moylan- Not sure the Braves will give him another go round. Love the man and wish him the best.

Eric O’Flaherty- This is almost certainly his last season in Atlanta as he’ll be in line for big bucks (Sean Marshall’s 3 year, 16 mill would be a good opening bid) and we don’t spend on middle relievers. One of Frank Wren’s great coups getting him for literally nothing

Lyle Overbay- See: Batista, Miguel.

Tyler Pastornciky- Think he has huge value as a super utility player. Think Brent Lillibridge for the White Sox (back when he was decent)

Martin Prado- Where will he play? Will he get a contract extension? After the McCann situation these are the two biggest questions facing us.

David Ross- Best backup catcher in baseball will likely be back. Who he is paired with and how much playing time he gets is the question.

Ben Sheets- It was a fun ride while it lasted. 8 solid starts for a million bucks is still a good deal.

Andrelton Simmons- Sit back and enjoy.

Julio Teheran- The one thing Julio needs in my mind is a team to give him 15-20 big league starts to prove himself. The Braves can’t do that as the rotation is full and as this season proved, every game in the standings matters. Getting traded to a second division club would probably be in his best interest, but I’m not sure if Atlanta wants to sell low.

Dan Uggla- Three options- trade him for someone else’s garbage contract, eat a huge chunk (a la Derek Lowe), or pray he turns it around. We’ll likely have option three.

Anthony Varvaro. Generic 4A reliever. He’s in roster spot limbo.

Jonny Venters- The second half was promising. Even if he doesn’t relive his all-star dominance, he has value. 

#24

The 2012 offseason looks to be the most interesting (at least in terms of player movement) for the Braves since 2009. That said, anything would be more interesting than last year where Derek Lowe was traded on Halloween and the biggest moves made in November-March was signing Jack Wilson. I'll provide a detailed look at next years obligations shortly.

Extra payroll flexibility will allow Frank Wren to be more forthright in his dealings. He can go out and spend on a free agent rather than concocting schemes (trades, bargain barrel signings) to keep us within a razor tight payroll as he’s done for most of his tenure. That’s not to say he can’t use creativity with next year’s budget. Here are a few ideas I think might work.

Go cheap at catcher

Brian McCann is having easily the worst year of his career, despite this exercising his 12,000,000.00 option for 2012 is often seen as a given. But the question of whether McCann could get 12 million on the free agent market is puzzling. An option for the Braves would be to decline the option and see if McCann would sign a cheaper deal. My guess is that he would not- the odds of him rebuilding his star level value is worth the risk of going year to year. If he decided to leave the Braves could do a tag-team approach at catcher- two guys worth a few million a year. David Ross and a Ramon Hernandez  type. If McCann’s offense rebounds it would be a blow, but the 2013 tag-team numbers would likely not be much worse than in 2012, plus a drastic improvement on defense would be nice. Hopefully they’d hold down the fort until Christian Bethancourt was ready. The money saved would be used to address other issues.

Make Francisco the third baseman

Juan’s numbers recently and against righties have been solid and the defense seems passable. My idea would be to platoon Francisco with a right handed utility infielder who could mash lefties and come in late for defense. The combo could both solidify the bench and provide a spot to save money. Ty Wigginton and Ryan Roberts are a few names that come to mind but I’m sure there are better options. Again, money saved would address other issues.

Go big on a starter

The Braves most glaring weakness for the past few years has been the lack of a dominant frontline starting pitcher. Winning a championship with a staff full of #3 starters is a nearly impossible feat (although the Rangers came close last year). Acquiring an ace is both impossibly difficult and incredibly expensive. Wren could go all in this winter, paying more than he (or I) wanted for Greinke or make a trade that hurts (Teheran and then a lot more) to get a stud. My next idea plays in to that….

Sell high (or where I get lynched)

The Dan Uggla contract is an albatross we’re going to have to deal with for quite some time. There are two options - try to trade him for someone else’s bad contract or make do with what we have and hope he figures it out. Assuming we can’t pull a deal, the next step is to try and makes lemons from lemonade. A way to defray loss would be to limit him as a defensive liability. One proposal would be to shift Uggla to first and move Prado back there or get a second baseman. While Uggla’s numbers would rank near the bottom of all first basemen, we have to put him somewhere and would recoup some of the loss by having an improved fielding middle infield.

But what of the current Braves first baseman, you say? Trade him. Or at least ask for the moon and hope someone gives it to you. Freeman’s value- a pre arbitration masher that will likely improve and cost very little- may never be higher. Put him on the open market and ask for something big, a legitimate middle of the order run producer or an ace starting pitcher (we’ll throw in a pitching process or take on a big contract) and see what you can get. A Freeman-Teheran type package could bring a very interesting haul. If we don’t get exactly what we want, don’t deal him. Trading a young vibrant player would hurt, but to get something big you have to give the same.