Wednesday, October 17, 2012

#26

Atlanta Braves Payroll Breakdown

2013 Commitments

Uggla                   13 2013 

2013 options
Maholm              6.5 or .5 buyout
Hudson              9 or 1 buyout
McCann             12 or .5 buyout

2012- coming off the books
Chipper               13
Lowe                     10
McCann               8.5
Bourn                    6.75
Jurrjens               5.5
Diaz                        2
Ross                       1.625
Hinske                  1.5
Sheets                  1.2*
Wilson                  1
Durbin                  .9
Livan                     .75
               toral       52.95

*Sheets contract is estimate on prorated portion of full contract

Free agents not coming off the books (paid for by other teams)
Maholm                4.75
Baker                   1.38
Johnson               1.15

2012 Arbitration eligible                           projected                        comp
Prado                    4.75                                     6.5                           Young
EO’F                     2.75                                     3.5
Heyward              .56                                         3.2                          Sandoval, Gardner
Tommy                 .54                                         3                            Masterson, Porcello, Gonzalez
Venters                .53                                         1.7                          Motte, Romo, Clippard
Medlen                .49                                          3
Cristhian              .49                                          1
                total       15.35     total (appx)        21.9

As of right now the Braves only have 15 million and one player guaranteed to 2013 (Uggla’s contract plus the three buyouts). Given an estimated payroll of 90 million, and a bevy of big contracts coming off the books, on paper there’s a lot of wiggle room. This is a little misleading as arbitration raises to players like Prado, Heyward, and others will eat up a large chunk of that. Still, the Braves have an amazing amount of flexibility and figure to be as aggressive as they have been since 2009, maybe even more so.

With that being said, the Braves have a number of holes to fill. Center field, either left or third, a right handed reliever, bench help, and a resolution to the catcher situation are all a must. Additionally a front end of the rotation starter would be nice. There’s a lot of money to spend but it will go quickly.

The options for Hudson and Maholm seem to be givens. A solid 3 starter and an innings eater for those prices seem reasonable. Factor in arbitration raises to Prado, O’Flaherty, Heyward, Hanson, Venters, Medlen, and Cristhian and consider Kimbrel, Avilan, Minor, Freeman, and Simmons as pre arbitration gimmes, suddenly the Braves payroll is in the 53 million dollar range, with 10 roster spots to be filled.

The 10 spots remaining would be: center field, left field/third base, starting catcher, backup catcher, utility infielder, backup outfielder, another bench bat, and two/three bullpen spots. A few of these will likely be filled with cheap in house options like Pastornicky, Constanza, and Gearrin. This leaves 30-35 million for 7 spots. Some will be cheaper types like Reed Johnson or Jeff Baker, but given we need a legitimate run producer to replace Chipper and a leadoff hitter to fill Bourn’s shoes, we’ll probably end up pinching pennies before long. That said, given last year we had no money to spend, anything will be more intriguing.

The first decision to be made will be the most difficult and possibly contentious. Brian McCann is probably not worth a one year, 12 million dollar contract strictly as a player, but that doesn’t mean the Braves won’t exercise his option. I’ll get more in to this at a later date, but I can really see the team exercising it, declining it, or agreeing to a contract at a lesser amount. If I were GM I’d do the third option, but it’s a tossup. Ross seems likely to return as a part of the catching tandem, though his playing time could vary depending on who the other catcher is.

The possibilities are endless for the remaining spots. The Braves generally focus on trades rather than free agent signings. While the farm isn’t as stocked as it has been, packages built around Julio Teheran or Randall Delgado could bring useful parts. My guess is the Braves will sign a midlevel free agent 5-10 million per season and make a rather large trade. 

The black cloud hanging over Braves finances is that of arbitration raises. Heyward, Medlen, Kimbrel, Freeman and the other young players service time will come due and earn sizable raises in the next three to five years.Spending loosely on free agents now could easily lead to forced dumping of young players in the upcoming offseasons. While going year to year helps you in case a player falls of a cliff (see: Jurrjens, Jair) it might be wise to sit down with young players to see if we can exchange cost certainly and relative discounts in exchange for the youngsters getting guaranteed money.  

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