#31

The scouting report on Christian Bethancourt is pretty simple: Pure 80 arm- throws as well as anyone in the game at any level. Major league ready defense and game calling. Pretty swing with excellent potential. Puts on a show in batting practice. Can’t get the ball out of the infield during the game.

In short, if the offense ever comes close to matching the defense, he’ll be a stud.

Bethncourt put up promising numbers between low and high A as a 19 year old, and continued the good work by raking in the Arizona Fall League. He followed this up by completely laying an egg at Mississippi in 2012. A .243 average isn’t terrible, but combing that with only 11 walks and 8 extra base hits in nearly 300 at bats is. Breaking a wrist in the final weeks was the cherry on top of a disappointing campaign.

There is still plenty of time for the youngster to improve. The Arizona Fall League is as good of a place to hit as Mississippi is bad; his true potential is somewhere between the .306/.325/.556 .243/.271/.295 he posted months apart. The timetable for catcher development is slower than any other position; Bethancourt being so far ahead of the curve defensively will buy him time for the bat to come around.

The comparisons to another catcher who made his mark with an excellent arm and a bat that evolved are inevitable. Bethancourt’s defense is so strong he’ll probably end up in the bigs even if he doesn’t develop as a hitter. While he is being hailed by many as the next Yadier Molina, the more appropriate question is which Molina brother will he turn in to? Will it be Yadier, who used average offense and elite level defense to make himself a perennial all star? Or Jose Molina who has bounced around but keeps getting jobs because his other wordly defense makes up for the fact he can’t hit a lick.

With the departures of Ross and Boscan and likelihood McCann will miss at least a portion of April, Bethancourt’s name has come up as a potential short term backup. This is something that will almost certainly not happen. The question is not whether he is ready for the show, but rather will he repeat Double A (I believe he will). The Braves will find a Boscan type 4A player to soak up a few at bats early in the season and wait at Gwinnett in case of injury. While Christian could provide excellent defense, it is not worth starting his service time clock for him not getting at bats when we can find a journeyman to provide similar service. Putting him on the Opening Day roster would essentially steal games from him when we don’t need him and he can’t hit that would be better served years down the road when he’s matured

and can produce

While we’re on the subject of Mississippi Braves back stops… Evan Gattis is as much a catcher as Matt Diaz was. When he was young his coach put him behind the plate and he was decent enough to stick there for a while, but eventually he became a man, packed on muscle, and outgrew the position. The Braves will give him innings behind the dish to keep him fresh behind the plate in case a slew of injuries arises, but at this point his position is hitter.

Few storylines pack as much intrigue as that of Gattis,the 26 year iold former drug addict/nomad who just won’t quit hitting.  While he’s shown he can mash in the low minors, the bar for players stuck in the “can’t really play anywhere but a corner or first” mold is high. The level of performance needed to be a valuable left fielder or first baseman is drastically higher than that of a skill position. In a lot of ways Gattis finds himself in the opposite position of his teammate Bethancourt. While Christian’s superb defensive skillset means he just needs to eek out a passable offense to succeed, Evan must mash with consistency to make up for a lack of defensive skills. Further more, while the younger catcher has plenty of time to adjust, Gattis is already entering the age most players are hitting their prime, yet he has but half a season at Double A under his belt.

He will likely start the year at Gwinnet and if he keeps the hit parade going he’ll be on the short list for the call once the Braves need a bench bat or if Heyward/Freeman/whomever is in left goes down. Needless to say, he is not an option for the backup catcher option either. 

#30

Giancarlo Stanton is the epitome of what the Braves are looking for this year. An affordably priced right handed, mashing corner outfield. The thought of Jason Heyward and Stanton manning Atlanta’s corner outfield spots for years to come is a drool worthy proposition. But even amidst Miami’s latest firestorm, the odds of the man once known as Mike having a tomahawk across his chest are minimal.

All of Miami’s moves thus far have been salary dumps. They could have gotten a much greater return shipping Johnson and Reyes off separately, but they chose to bundle them with the far less desirable contracts of Buehrle and Buck, in essence choosing money over talent. Stanton makes close to minimum wage and as of right now is the absolute only reason anyone would pay to see the Marlins play. With their third dump in 15 years it seems likely MLB seems likely to exert pressure to make sure Miami at least pretends to put a quality product on the field. Moving Stanton gives up any pretense of trying to win. Trading their only remaining player of value wouldn’t be waiving a white flag; it would be swallowing a bullet.

In short, he doesn’t fit their firesale blueprint. (one they’ve mastered) Maybe in a year or two when his salary spikes, but not now. That’s not to say he won’t go. No one knows what Miami is thinking (they might not even know themselves) Furthermore Stanton could asked to be moved. If I had to bet, I’d say he stays, but would not be surprised either way.

Even if the Fish decide to move Stanton, he’s by no means a lock to be a Brave. He’s desirable to us for the same reasons he’s desirable to the other 29 teams; young, cost controlled superstars are hard to find. On the open market there could easily be 15+ legitimate bidders for his services. And even if Miami pulls a Miami, and screws the pooch, selling for less than market value, they’re going to get a king’s ransom for Stanton.

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs does a fascinating series each year where he ranks the top 50 most valuable commodities in baseball. The list ranks players by the amount they could return on the open market via trade. Stanton is 5th in baseball, behind only Trout, Harper, Longoria, and McCutchen. He ranks ahead of such players as Heyward, Strasburg, Posey, and Verlander. Let that sink in for a second. A trade for Stanton would, in theory, would require the 5th largest package for any baseball player alive.

So what would a Braves trade for Stanton look like (other than gigantic)? First off if Stanton is a Braves, it’s almost certain Julio Teheran is taking his talents to South Beach. There was a time 15 months ago or so when Teheran himself would almost be enough to get Stanton, but his value has clearly regressed. Beyond that, expect the Braves cupboard to be pretty empty after a trade for Stanton. Think Teixeira type package, only more. Bethancourt, Graham, Ahmed, Salcedo, Delgado, Gilmartin… most of them are Marlins. The Braves farm system is at its weakest in years. It would take most of them to get the job done. Even if the Braves offer the farm to the Marlins, we might not be able to win a bidding war, especially if another team gets crazy and offers an elite talent (think Profar or Bundy) that we don’t have. Considering most of baseball would want him, this isn’t unthinkable. A Braves deal would be more quantity over quality. It’s unclear which the Marlins prefer, although their needs are so vast matching up wouldn’t be an issue.

The Braves could get creative to make a deal. One option would be to flip the soon to be departed O’Flaherty for prospects then ask the Marlins to include Mike Dunn in a trade. Another would be to take on Ricky Nolasco (the only remaining high salary player) to offset the prospect haul. Braves could either use Nolasco to replace the pitching sent to Miami or flip him to restock the farm. Wren is creative enough to figure something out.

The odds of Stanton donning a Braves uniform are slim, but certainly not none. Dreaming is the official pastime of winter, and few players in baseball give you more to dream on than Giancarlo Stanton

#29

Good ideas

1.       Trade with Royals- The match between Braves and Royals goes beyond Dayton Moore’s affinity for our unwanted parts. They need pitching and have extra corner players, we need corner players and have extra pitching. A deal centered around one of our young pitchers for Gordon or Moustakas (not Frenchy) could work

2.       Explore E’OF trade- If Brandon League is worth 3 years, 22.5 million (I think this is an aberration, but still) EO’F will be worth significantly more than we can pay him next offseason. Wren would be foolish to not look in to the possibility of selling high as we’ll lose him for nothing in a year.

3.       Extend Heyward/Prado- They’re in line for a lot of money, might as well get it out of the way now so we have cost certainty. Something between Andrew McCutchen and Nick Markakis for Heyward, 6 years, 60 million-ish, and 4 years, 40-50 million for Prado

4.       Mike Olt- Texas has the best 3B and SS prospects in the game and have second, third, and short locked down for years to come. While he’d be pricey, he’d lock down the hot corner for years to come. (I wrote this one before word of the Simmons/Olt

5.       Getting an ace- I’m probably the only person that thinks the Braves should go big on a frontline starting pitcher, but darn it, I want an ace. Greinke is probably out of our budget but if I’m Wren I at least call to see if Felix, Price, or others even might be the teensiest bit available.

6.       Victorino/Hunter one year deal- Victorino is only a good idea on a one year, low dollar amount. While I’m generally loath to sign anyone over 35, Hunter intrigues me. He had a higher OPS than Bourn or Upton (both Uptons, for that matter) and played an excellent corner outfield. He’ll probably get a multi year deal, which sours me on him.

7.       Right handed set up man- A righty to pitch the 8th was a huge weakness on the 2012 Braves. Assuming Brandon League was a fluke, there are plenty of options we could pick a solid counterpart to EO’F. One of Soria, Adams, Broxton, Grilli, Uehara, etc… would work.

8.       Denard Span. He’s Bourn Lite. Excellent defense, gets on base, runs. Minnesota desperately needs pitching, we have plenty to spare.

Bad ideas

1.       Dexter Fowler- Fowler is the epitome of a Coors Field hitter. His triple slash line is remarkably similar to Andrew McCutchen at home and Alicedes Escobar on the road. The Rockies will want a package far closer to the former than the latter to pry him away. He’s not worth it until there’s reason to think he can hit outside of Colorado.

2.       Josh Hamilton- He’s old, ridiculously expensive, no longer a center fielder, and would take up our entire offseason budget. He’s also as injury prone as they come- think Chipper at the end of his career type tweaks/aches/and pulls. Then there’s the x-factor: no one knows how several years of cocaine use and alcoholism will effect a fragile body. All I know is I don’t want the Braves to be the ones to find out.

3.       Extend Medlen- He’s not going to have a 0.97 ERA, 0.80 WHIP forever. He’ll come back down to earth sometime, we’re just not sure where earth is. Will he settle down as an elite #2 starter or more of a middle of the rotation guy? It’s better to figure this out (and see if he can stay healthy) before committing big money to him.

4.       Angel Pagan- My man crush on Pagan is well known (and he has the coolest name in baseball). That said, the more I think about it, the more I’m convinced he’s priced himself out of our market. The love/lust was based on the idea he could be had for something in the neighborhood of Jason Kubel money- 2 years, 15 million- but the general consensus is that he’ll get 3-4 years and 10+ million per. If it’s affordable, I love it. But I don’t think it will be.

5.       Josh Willingham- It wouldn’t be a Braves offseason without mumblings of Josh Willingham. While his right handed bat in left looks good on paper, paying Minnesota for an expensive, soon to be 34 year old isn’t our best move.

6.       Big time contracts- Young, soon to be arbitration eligible, players will swallow up a huge chunk of our payroll 2013-2016. Locking down huge chunks of our payroll during this period will only haunt us.

7.       Spend money for the sake of spending money- If it’s January and there’s plenty of money left over, don’t throw it at someone. Use it for extending our young players or keep it for a midseason addition. Goes along with #8

8.       Force it- Wren’s biggest mistakes have come when he feels he *needs* to do something. Needing good publicity as much as a good pitcher, he threw 60,000,000.00 at Derek Lowe. (Imagine what the 2012 Braves could have done without paying Lowe to pitch elsewhere) Conversely, Wren has showed the patience of a Jedi acquiring Michael Bourn, waiting other teams out and pouncing at he last minute picking up the best available player. Don’t give in to the media or the fans, wait and make the best move.