Wednesday, November 14, 2012

#29

Good ideas

1.       Trade with Royals- The match between Braves and Royals goes beyond Dayton Moore’s affinity for our unwanted parts. They need pitching and have extra corner players, we need corner players and have extra pitching. A deal centered around one of our young pitchers for Gordon or Moustakas (not Frenchy) could work
2.       Explore E’OF trade- If Brandon League is worth 3 years, 22.5 million (I think this is an aberration, but still) EO’F will be worth significantly more than we can pay him next offseason. Wren would be foolish to not look in to the possibility of selling high as we’ll lose him for nothing in a year.
3.       Extend Heyward/Prado- They’re in line for a lot of money, might as well get it out of the way now so we have cost certainty. Something between Andrew McCutchen and Nick Markakis for Heyward, 6 years, 60 million-ish, and 4 years, 40-50 million for Prado
4.       Mike Olt- Texas has the best 3B and SS prospects in the game and have second, third, and short locked down for years to come. While he’d be pricey, he’d lock down the hot corner for years to come. (I wrote this one before word of the Simmons/Olt
5.       Getting an ace- I’m probably the only person that thinks the Braves should go big on a frontline starting pitcher, but darn it, I want an ace. Greinke is probably out of our budget but if I’m Wren I at least call to see if Felix, Price, or others even might be the teensiest bit available.
6.       Victorino/Hunter one year deal- Victorino is only a good idea on a one year, low dollar amount. While I’m generally loath to sign anyone over 35, Hunter intrigues me. He had a higher OPS than Bourn or Upton (both Uptons, for that matter) and played an excellent corner outfield. He’ll probably get a multi year deal, which sours me on him.
7.       Right handed set up man- A righty to pitch the 8th was a huge weakness on the 2012 Braves. Assuming Brandon League was a fluke, there are plenty of options we could pick a solid counterpart to EO’F. One of Soria, Adams, Broxton, Grilli, Uehara, etc… would work.
8.       Denard Span. He’s Bourn Lite. Excellent defense, gets on base, runs. Minnesota desperately needs pitching, we have plenty to spare.

Bad ideas

1.       Dexter Fowler- Fowler is the epitome of a Coors Field hitter. His triple slash line is remarkably similar to Andrew McCutchen at home and Alicedes Escobar on the road. The Rockies will want a package far closer to the former than the latter to pry him away. He’s not worth it until there’s reason to think he can hit outside of Colorado.
2.       Josh Hamilton- He’s old, ridiculously expensive, no longer a center fielder, and would take up our entire offseason budget. He’s also as injury prone as they come- think Chipper at the end of his career type tweaks/aches/and pulls. Then there’s the x-factor: no one knows how several years of cocaine use and alcoholism will effect a fragile body. All I know is I don’t want the Braves to be the ones to find out.
3.       Extend Medlen- He’s not going to have a 0.97 ERA, 0.80 WHIP forever. He’ll come back down to earth sometime, we’re just not sure where earth is. Will he settle down as an elite #2 starter or more of a middle of the rotation guy? It’s better to figure this out (and see if he can stay healthy) before committing big money to him.
4.       Angel Pagan- My man crush on Pagan is well known (and he has the coolest name in baseball). That said, the more I think about it, the more I’m convinced he’s priced himself out of our market. The love/lust was based on the idea he could be had for something in the neighborhood of Jason Kubel money- 2 years, 15 million- but the general consensus is that he’ll get 3-4 years and 10+ million per. If it’s affordable, I love it. But I don’t think it will be.
5.       Josh Willingham- It wouldn’t be a Braves offseason without mumblings of Josh Willingham. While his right handed bat in left looks good on paper, paying Minnesota for an expensive, soon to be 34 year old isn’t our best move.
6.       Big time contracts- Young, soon to be arbitration eligible, players will swallow up a huge chunk of our payroll 2013-2016. Locking down huge chunks of our payroll during this period will only haunt us.
7.       Spend money for the sake of spending money- If it’s January and there’s plenty of money left over, don’t throw it at someone. Use it for extending our young players or keep it for a midseason addition. Goes along with #8
8.       Force it- Wren’s biggest mistakes have come when he feels he *needs* to do something. Needing good publicity as much as a good pitcher, he threw 60,000,000.00 at Derek Lowe. (Imagine what the 2012 Braves could have done without paying Lowe to pitch elsewhere) Conversely, Wren has showed the patience of a Jedi acquiring Michael Bourn, waiting other teams out and pouncing at he last minute picking up the best available player. Don’t give in to the media or the fans, wait and make the best move.

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