All of Miami’s moves thus far have been salary dumps. They
could have gotten a much greater return shipping Johnson and Reyes off
separately, but they chose to bundle them with the far less desirable contracts
of Buehrle and Buck, in essence choosing money over talent. Stanton makes close
to minimum wage and as of right now is the absolute only reason anyone would
pay to see the Marlins play. With their third dump in 15 years it seems likely
MLB seems likely to exert pressure to make sure Miami at least pretends to put a
quality product on the field. Moving Stanton gives up any pretense of trying to
win. Trading their only remaining player of value wouldn’t be waiving a white
flag; it would be swallowing a bullet.
In short, he doesn’t fit their firesale blueprint. (one they’ve
mastered) Maybe in a year or two when his salary spikes, but not now. That’s
not to say he won’t go. No one knows what Miami is thinking (they might not
even know themselves) Furthermore Stanton could asked to be moved. If I had to
bet, I’d say he stays, but would not be surprised either way.
Even if the Fish decide to move Stanton, he’s by no means a
lock to be a Brave. He’s desirable to us for the same reasons he’s desirable to
the other 29 teams; young, cost controlled superstars are hard to find. On the
open market there could easily be 15+ legitimate bidders for his services. And
even if Miami pulls a Miami, and screws the pooch, selling for less than market
value, they’re going to get a king’s ransom for Stanton.
Dave Cameron of FanGraphs does a fascinating series each
year where he ranks the top 50 most valuable commodities in baseball. The list
ranks players by the amount they could return on the open market via trade.
Stanton is 5th in baseball, behind only Trout, Harper, Longoria, and McCutchen.
He ranks ahead of such players as Heyward, Strasburg, Posey, and Verlander. Let
that sink in for a second. A trade for Stanton would, in theory, would require
the 5th largest package for any baseball player alive.
So what would a Braves trade for Stanton look like (other
than gigantic)? First off if Stanton is a Braves, it’s almost certain Julio
Teheran is taking his talents to South Beach. There was a time 15 months ago or
so when Teheran himself would almost be enough to get Stanton, but his value
has clearly regressed. Beyond that, expect the Braves cupboard to be pretty
empty after a trade for Stanton. Think Teixeira type package, only more.
Bethancourt, Graham, Ahmed, Salcedo, Delgado, Gilmartin… most of them are
Marlins. The Braves farm system is at its weakest in years. It would take most
of them to get the job done. Even if the Braves offer the farm to the Marlins,
we might not be able to win a bidding war, especially if another team gets
crazy and offers an elite talent (think Profar or Bundy) that we don’t have.
Considering most of baseball would
want him, this isn’t unthinkable. A Braves deal would be more quantity over
quality. It’s unclear which the Marlins prefer, although their needs are so
vast matching up wouldn’t be an issue.
The Braves could get creative to make a deal. One option
would be to flip the soon to be departed O’Flaherty for prospects then ask the
Marlins to include Mike Dunn in a trade. Another would be to take on Ricky
Nolasco (the only remaining high salary player) to offset the prospect haul.
Braves could either use Nolasco to replace the pitching sent to Miami or flip
him to restock the farm. Wren is creative enough to figure something out.
The odds of Stanton donning a Braves uniform are slim, but
certainly not none. Dreaming is the official pastime of winter, and few players
in baseball give you more to dream on than Giancarlo Stanton
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