Monday, December 10, 2012

#34

This isn’t about Brian McCann, but he’s the most recent example so he’s prominently featured.

I’ve seen several variations of the following theme lately: The Braves should NEVER let Brian McCann leave.

I responded with something along these lines: Let’s say you’ve used a shampoo your entire life. You love it. Works wonders. You decide you will NEVER change shampoos. Then the cost of the shampoo doubles. Then it doubles again. To the point where it costs five times as much as a shampoo that works better. Then you find out the shampoo is causing your hair to fall out. Do you still keep using it?

No, you don’t. You do not (or at least should not) have a deep emotional attachment to a shampoo, plus you can realistically feel the negative repercussions of an ineffective, overpriced product.

No one wants to see a player like McCann leave. I love him; everyone loves him. But if we can find someone who can help us win better, then we need to look in to the matter.

Chipper’s story book retirement and farewell tour has served to romanticize an already biased fan base. Every player will leave the team they are on. And 99.9999% leave in a manner far less poetic than Chipper did. In fact, the vast majority of players who spend their entire career with one team do so only because their careers last less than a few years and aren’t good enough for another team to give them a shot.

Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Lopez and Murphy all left the Braves. The team and its fans survived, and none of their departures made the team appreciably worse on the field. If anything, Murphy staying around as long as he did caused more harm than good- the Braves had multiple large offers for him in the late eighties, but refused out of loyalty. When they finally dumped the shell of his former self in 1990 all they could get were spare parts.

Every single player who has had their number retired by the Braves eventually left the team not entirely of their own doing. Aaron, Mathews, Murphy, and Spahn were traded, Niekro, Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine left to free agency, and Cox was fired in the 70’s. And while we’re at it Glavine was let go a second time, being released in 2010. The team survived. No one looks back on Aaron or Spahn’s career and rues them spending a year with Milwaukee or the Mets. I guess it would have been ideal for them to go out like Chipper, but virtually no one does.

If you know me, you know Chipper is my man. He’s been my favorite since third grade, covering more than two thirds of my life. I named my dog after him and wore socks up throughout elementary school to honor/emulate him. If the Braves had traded him, or he left via free agency I would have been devastated. I would have been irate at Schuerholz/Wren for letting it happen. But if the move made us better, pushed us closer to winning the World Series, I could deal with it.

Which brings me to my point, the one thing I want to scream at misguided tweeters every day: If you’re a fan of a team and your allegiance is greater toward individual players than to overall team success, you’re doing it wrong. If you’re a (insert player name here) fan, and not a team fan, good for you, but don’t confuse what’s good for your player/your psyche with what’s good for the team as a whole. If you don’t want McCann to go and replace him with someone else because the Braves would be less likely to win, great! Tell me why you think so. If you don’t want McCann to leave because you think he’s cool and you can’t ever imagine anyone else catching for the Braves, you need to do some more research and reassess your priorities.

There will come a day when Brian, Jason, Craig, Andrelton and all of the Braves are no longer wearing a tomahawk across their chest. Almost all will leave for one of three reasons: 1) they just couldn’t cut it anymore, 2) someone could pay them more, or 3) we found someone who could do it better than them/made more sense for the team. To delude yourself in to thinking we can somehow keep everyone we like forever does nothing but hinder your understanding of the game and set you up for heartache when they do inevitably depart.

The Braves are a midmarket team. We can’t afford to give sweetheart contracts to veterans who’ve done us well. (Ask the Phillies how that’s working for them) Our ownership/financial state is such that we have to make difficult decisions. A player who provides 10 units of production at ten million dollars is wonderful, but if we can find a youngster who can provide 4 units of production at league minimum, the latter is likely the better fit. Feelings will get hurt and good, decent human beings will get screwed over. What happens on the field is a game, everything else is a cold, brutal business. Keeping this in perspective will help lessen future disappointment

You think the Braves should keep McCann? Tell me why. Show me how his option is affordable to the Braves or how we wouldn’t be able find a decent replacement. Believe we should let him go? Come up with a coherent plan for replacing him.

Until then I’ll keep saying this refrain: I’d rather win a World Series with players I’m getting to know than sit at home in October with players I love.

Monday, December 3, 2012

#33

Let me preface this by saying I highly doubt any of this to happen and that by the time you read this, my entire thought bubble will have likely popped. But nothing symbolizes the hot stove more than coming up with theories destined to be debunked, so here I go.

I think the Braves could be a darkhorse suitor for Zack Greinke. Let me be clear, if Greinke wants top dollar (or anywhere near top dollar, for that matter) the Braves won’t be giving it to him. But that doesn’t mean we can’t snag him. It will require a great amount of cunning, strategy, and most importantly, a desire from Greinke to go against the norm.

The battle plan for getting the premier free agent pitcher on the cheap comes from an odd place: the Phillies. Two winters ago Cliff Lee was the premier arm available. The entire narrative was a bidding war between the Yankees and Rangers. He would go to the Yankees if he wanted money, Rangers if he wanted to be comfortable and close to home, pundits speculated. There was talk of a mystery team, but most assumed this was agent speak to shake a couple extra dollars out of a team.

In the end, the mystery team won. The Phillies sat on the sidelines, showing cautious interest, but refusing to get involved in the bidding war. Once the Yankees and Rangers had shot their proverbial loads with 6 and 7 year deals with 150 million dollars plus, Philadelphia swooped in, and offered Lee substantially less- 5 years, 120 million- and sold him not on money, but going to where he was wanted and could best thrive. It worked.

Granted, this entire scenario boils down to one tenuous factor: Cliff Lee was willing to leave 30 plus million dollars on the table. Most players and agents aren’t willing to even entertain the notion, let alone act on it. A couple million to go to a preferred destination, sure. But not 20% off the largest paycheck of their life. If Greinke is to be a Braves, he’ll probably have to leave an even greater share. The team labeled the favorite to sign him, the Dodgers, has as close to unlimited funds as possible.

There is adequate reason to believe Greinke might take less. He is a unique individual to say the least and there have been persistent murmurs he’d like to play for the Braves. His mental health history may persuade him to seek the lesser spotlight of Atlanta rather than  the “win at all costs” sideshow the Dodgers are seeming to become.

Frank Wren and John Schuerholz are usually fairly blunt when it comes to their free agent pursuits. They’ll tell you if they’re done or not interested. But they’ve been somewhat coy with Greinke. What I would do, and would not be surprised to see them do, is wait until Greinke has his final offers in hand then make their move. Something noticeably less than top dollar, but enough to make him happy (5 years, 90-100 million). Make a last minute pitch on why Atlanta is the best fit for him as a baseball player and person. It almost certainly won’t work, but it’s worth a shot.

Making room for Greinke in the budget wouldn’t be too difficult. The team could move Maholm and O’Flaherty and have close to 20 million available in this year’s salary, then use the pieces obtained in those trades and some of our own prospects to get a young, cheap bat for left field. 18-20 million a year isn’t ideal for a team with our budget, but it’s not outlandish. And unlike trading for a Justin Upton type, we wouldn’t have to clean out our farm system to get our man. As this last year’s playoffs showed, aces matter. Putting Greinke at the top of our rotation, giving him starts in Game 1, 4, and 7 of a playoff series is the most beneficial move the Braves can make.

But that’s not how the game (almost always) works. He’ll go to the Dodgers or whichever team throws the most money at him. I’ve just wasted a half hour writing this, and you’e wasted 10 minutes reading it.

But you never know…

#32

I was trying to avoid doing work so I made a list of the top 150 Atlanta Braves in terms of wins above replacement. WAR is generally considered to be one of the best measuring sticks for player value. It takes all aspects of player performance- hitting, running, and fielding and compares them to a basic norm (replacement level) for that position. It’s a nifty tool as it allows you to compare a slick fielding shortstop to a slugging first baseman and a player in the mashing steroid era to the light hitting 60’s. A few tidbits on WAR: it is based on value rather than output. If Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann put up identical numbers, McCann would have a much higher WAR was it is far more difficult to find production out of a catcher than it is a first baseman. (I used FanGraphs version of WAR, if you were curious)

I only based the countdown on a player’s performance with the Braves in Atlanta. For this reason Hank Aaron isn’t #1 (much of his damage came in Milwaukee). Also players who spent time with other organizations (Maddux, Justice) are hurt. Lastly, for pitchers I only included their WAR on the mound and not at the plate. This actually would have pushed a guy like Tom Glavine- with a career offensive WAR greater than Kelly Johnson- multiple spots higher.

Enjoy!


1.       Chipper Jones 90.4
2.       John Smoltz 80.9
3.       Phil Niekro 77.4
4.       Greg Maddux 74.4
5.       Andruw Jones 69.0
6.       Hank Aaron 58.4
7.       Tom Glavine 56.9
8.       Dale Murphy6 47.1
9.       Brian McCann 28.7
10.   Javy Lopez 28.2
11.   Darrell Evans 26.8
12.   David Justice 25.9
13.   Ron Reed 22.2
14.   Steve Avery 21
15.   Jeff Blauser 20.8
16.   Bob Horner 20.7
17.   Rico Carty 20.5
18.   Pat Jarvis 20.5
19.   Kevin Millwood 20.3
20.   Rafael Furcal 19.9
21.   Rick Mahler 19.6
22.   Marcus Giles 19.4
23.   Ron Gant 17.9
24.   Felipe Alou 16.9
25.   Carl Morton 16.5
26.   Joe Torre 16.3
27.   Dusty Baker 16.1
28.   Martin Prado 15.8
29.   Lonnie Smith 15.6
30.   Ralph Garr 15.6
31.   Fred McGriff 14.9
32.   Glenn Hubbard 14.3
33.   Zane Smith 13.8
34.   Jason Heyward 13.7
35.   Ryan Klesko 13.6
36.   Terry Pendleton 13.5
37.   Gary Sheffield 13.3
38.   Clete Boyer 12.3
39.   Felix Millan 11.8
40.   Yunel Excobar 11.8
41.   Charlie Leibrandt 11.2
42.   Gene Garber 10.8
43.   Gary Matthews 10.7
44.   Orlando Cepeda 10.6
45.   Brian Jordan 10.5
46.   Jair Jurrjens 10.2
47.   Tommy hanson 9.9
48.   Chris Chambliss 9.7
49.   Mike Lum 9.4
50.   J,D. Drew 8.9
51.   Pascual Perez 8.9
52.   Kelly Johnson 8.8
53.   Denny Neagle 8.7
54.   Steve Bedrosian 8.5
55.   Edgar Renteria 8.4
56.   Bruce Bendict 8.3
57.   Davey Johnson 8.2
58.   Mark Lemke 8.1
59.   Derek Lowe 8.1
60.   George Stone 8.1
61.   Mark Wohlers 8.0
62.   Mack Jones 8.0
63.   Jeff Burroughs 7.7
64.   Dick Ruthben 7.7
65.   John Burkett 7.7
66.   MichaelBourn 7.6
67.   Craig Kimbrel 7.3
68.   Pete Smith 7.1
69.   Andres Galarraga 7.0
70.   Otis Nixon 7.0
71.   Doyle Alexander 6.8
72.   Greg McMichael 6.8
73.   Jeff Francoeur 6.8
74.   Earl Williams 6.6
75.   Mike Hampton 6.66
76.   Rick Camp 6.5
77.   Javier Vazquez 6.5
78.   Kris Medlen 6.5
79.   David Ross 6.4
80.   Matt Diaz 6.2
81.   Mark Teixeira 6.1
82.   Marquis Grissom 6.1
83.   Ken Johnson 6.1
84.   Dan Uggla 6.0
85.   John Thomson 6.0
86.   Dennis Menke 5.8
87.   Kenny Lofton 5.5
88.   David Palmer 5.5
89.   Andy Messersmith 5.5
90.   Tommy Boggs 5.5
91.   Deion Sanders 5.4
92.   Ozzie Virgil 5.4
93.   Denny Lemaster 5.3
94.   Mike Remlinger 5.3
95.   Kent Mercker 5.0
96.   Ken Oberkfell 5.0
97.   Claudell Washington 5.0
98.   Brandon Beachy 4.9
99.   Gerald Williams 4.9
100.                        Rafael Ramirez 4.9
101.                        Jaret Wright 4.8
102.                        Julio Franco 4.7
103.                        Russ Ortiz 4.7
104.                        Omar Infante 4.6
105.                        Buzz Capra 4.3
106.                        Craig McMurtry 4.3
107.                        Jeff Treadway 4.2
108.                        Eddie Solomon 4.2
109.                        Quilvio Veras 4.1
110.                        Michael Tucker 4.1
111.                        Milt Pappas 4.1
112.                        Adam LaRoche 4.0
113.                        Jim Nash 3.8
114.                        Cecil Upshaw 3.8
115.                        Len Barker 3.8
116.                        Jonny Venters 3.8
117.                        Johnny Estrada 3.7
118.                        Eddie Mathews 3.7
119.                        Paul Assenmacher 3.7
120.                        Eric O’Flaherty 3.6
121.                        Greg Olsen 3.6
122.                        Walt Weiss 3.5
123.                        John Rocker 3.5
124.                        Mike Minor 3.5
125.                        Larry McWilliams 3.5
126.                        Ryan Langerhans 3.4
127.                        Tony Gonzalez 3.3
128.                        Eddie Perez 3.2
129.                        Rick Matula 3.2
130.                        Tito Francona 3.1
131.                        Sid Bream 3.1
132.                        Jimmy Wynn 3.1
133.                        Horacio Ramirez 3.1
134.                        Mike Bielecki 3.1
135.                        Jim Acker 3.0
136.                        Roric Harrison 3.0
137.                        Dion James 3.0
138.                        Gaylord Perry 2.9
139.                        Dick Kelley 2.8
140.                        Freddie Freeman 2.7
141.                        Mike Stanton 2.7
142.                        Odalis Perez 2.7
143.                        Donnie Moore 2.6
144.                        Ron Schueler 2.6
145.                        Kerry Ligtenberg 2.6
146.                        Terry Mulholland 2.6
147.                        Derek Lilliquist 2.6
148.                        Brett Butler 2.5
149.                        Kenshin Kawakami 2.5
150.                        Tony Brizzolara 2.5