#18

The Abridged Works of Frank Wren

The Best of the Best

1.  Acquire Jair Jurrjens and  Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria, cash

2. Acquire Michael Bourn for Jordan Schafer, Juan Abreu, Paul Clemens, and Brett Oberholtzer

3. Claim Eric O’Flaherty off waivers

4. Acquire Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan for Tyler Flowers, Brent Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriguez

5.  Acquire Wil Ohman and Omar Infante for Jose Ascanio

6. Acquire Dan Uggla for Mike Dunn and Omar Infante

7. Claim Cristhian Martinez off waivers

8. Sign David Ross to two year, 3 million dollar contract

9. Acquire Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman

10/ Signed Eric Hinske to a one year, 1 million dollar contract

The Worst of the Worst

1. Sign Derek Lowe to 4 year, 60 million dollar contract

2. Sign Kenshin Kawakami to 3 year, 21 million dollar contact

3. Sign Dan Uggla to five year, 62 million dollar extension

4. Acquire Nate McLouth for Charlie Morton, Gorky Hernandez, and Jeff Locke

5. Sign Tom Glavine to one year, 7 million dollar contract

What Frank Wren is really good at:

- Trades. Aside from the McLouth deal, he’s won most of them. No Teixeira like stinkers.

- Waiver claims- EO’F and Cristhian for nothing. Well done

- Screap heap signings. Ross, Glaus, Hinske, and more all for less than 2 mill a season

What Wren has been really bad at:

- Big money signings. His three biggest mistakes all involve giving way too much money to old players

- Drafts: Braves have gotten 3 major leaguers out of Wren’s drafts, and little hope for any further. Not really his fault as Liberty gives him no money to spend.

#17

The Complete Works of Frank Wren October 07: Acquire Jair Jurrjens and  Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria, cash- Wren’s first move is still his best. A solid middle of the rotation starter for Renteria’s worst year Sign Chris Resop November 07: Acquire Josh Anderson for Oscar Villarreal- Neither had any consequence, but Braves got out of paying Villarreal, so it’s a slight win. Sign Tom Glavine to one year, 7 million dollar contract Resign Corky Miller Release Lance Cormier, Pete Orr December 07: Acquire Wil Ohman and Omar Infante for Jose Ascanio- I really liked Ascanio, but this deal was an absolute steal for the Braves. Sign Jorge Campillo, J.C. Boscan Release Willie Harris January 08: Acquire Mark Kotsay and cash for Joey Devine and Jamie Richmond- This deal looked just awful at the time, but Devine never materialized Acquire Jeff Ridgway for Willy Aybar and Chase Fontaine- Aybar, still struggling with drug addiction needed to go. That he provided value as a bench bat to Tampa was more of a shock than anything Sign Rafael Soriano to two year, 9 million dollar extension Allow Andruw Jones to sign with Dodgers March 08: Acquire Todd Redmond for Tyler Yates Claim Ruben Gotay off waivers May 08: Acquire Greg Norton for PTBNL/Cash Release Chris Resop and Brayan Pena June 08: Draft Craig Kimbrel (3) and J.J. Hoover (10)- Easily Wren’s best draft, but that’s not saying much July 08: Sign Brandon Beachy as non drafted free agent- Non drafted free agents aren’t Wren’s thing, but he’s responsible for the entire organization, and this was brilliant. Acquired Casey Kotchman and Stepehen Marek for Mark Teixeira August 08: Release Corky Miller and Royce Ring Acquire Luis Sumoza for Mark Kotsay November 08: Claim Eric O’Flaherty off waivers- One of the best relievers in the game for nothing? Thank you very much, Seattle. Sign Brooks Conrad as minor league free agent- Nice little pickup Release Scott Thorman December 08: Acquire Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan for Tyler Flowers, Brent Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore, and Santos Rodriguez- Vazquez was a beast in his one year in Atlanta. The rest are chaff. Sign David Ross to two year, 3 million dollar contract- Seemed odd to give a guy who hardly played the year before a 2 year deal, but it more than worked. Resign Greg Norton January 09: Sign Kenshin Kawakami to 3 year, 21 million dollar contact- The Japanese experiment failed badly Sign Derek Lowe to 4 year, 60 million dollar contract- After losing out on Burnett, Peavy, & Furcal the Braves were desperate and Scott Boras was more than happy to help them make a bad decision. Sign Omar Infante to 2 year, 4.325 million dollar extension Allow John Smoltz to sign with Red Sox February 09: Sign Garret Anderson to one year, 2.5 million dollar contract Sign Tom Glavine to minor league contract March 09: Sign Chipper Jones to three year, 42 million dollar extension Acquire Rudy Darrow for Josh Anderson Release Jeff Ridgway

April 09:

Acquire Brian Barton for Blaine Boyer- Two BB’s. Barton pinch ran for the Braves once, but never got an atbat. A wash.

June 09:

Acquire Nate McLouth for Charlie Morton, Gorky Hernandez, and Jeff Locke

Release Tom Glavine

Draft Mike Minor (1)- A miserable draft as the Braves have their only single digit pick in decades and only get a fringy starter and absolutely nothing else in later rounds

July 09:

Acquire Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur- Frenchy had outworn his welcome. Church did nothing, but Braves needed to move along.

Release Jeff Bennett

Acquire Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman- LaRoche proved twice as much WAR in 2 months as Kotchman did in 6.

November 09:

Sign Tim Hudson to three year, 28 million dollar extension- Excellent sign.

Sign Scott Proctor to one year contract

Sign Jose Constanza as minor league free agent

December 09:

Sign Billy Wagner to one year, 7  million dollar contract- Seemed like a lot at the time but Wagner was a stud

Acquire Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Arodys Vizcaino for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan- Irony is that Boone Logan has done the most for these teams. Potential of Arodys gives Braves the win

Acquire Jesse Chavez for Rafael Soriano- Looks a lot worse than it is. Braves had to dump him after he surprisingly took arbitration. It’s a wash.

Sign Takashi Saito to a one year, 3.2 million dollar deal

Release Ryan Church

Release Kelly Johnson

Allow Mike Gonzalez to sign with Orioles

January 10:

Signed Troy Glaus to a one year, 1.75 million dollar contract- A nice garbage heap pickup.

Signed Eric Hinske to a one year, 1 million dollar contract

Release Brandon Jones

March 10:

Release Manny Acosta

Acquire Billy Bullock for Scott Diamond- Considered a win at the time, Bullock has never reached Atlanta while Diamond has been decent.

April 10:

Claim Cristhian Martinez off waivers- Wren has mastered the salvage pile pitcher pickup.

June 10:

Draft Andrelton Simmons (2)

July 10:

Sign David Ross to two year, 3.25 million dollar extension

Acquire Alex Gonzalez, Tyler Pastornicky, and Tim Collins for Yunel Escobar and Jo Jo Reyes- Both teams got what they wanted out of this deal.

Acquire Rick Ankiel, Kyle Farnsworth and cash for Tim Collins, Gregor Blanco, and Jesse Chavez- Ankiel and Farnsworth provided some impact. Collins would be nice to have back, though.

August 10:

Release Chris Resop

Acquire Derrek Lee for Jeff Lorrick, Robinson Lopez, and Tyrelle Harris- Minor impact for three non factors.

October 10:

Decline option on Nate McLouth

Release Melky Cabrera- Sure this looks bad given his future success, but given Melky’s terribleness in Atlanta, this seems justified

November 10:

Claim Joe Mather off waivers

Exercise Alex Gonzalez’s one year, 2.75 million dollar option

Acquire Dan Uggla for Mike Dunn and Omar Infante- An all star slugger for a utility infielder and middle reliever? Yes, please.

December 10:

Sign Eric Hinske to a two year, 2.8 million dollar contract

Sign George Sherrill to one year, 1.2 million dollar contract

Acquired Scott Linebrink, cash for Kyle Cofield

January 11:

Sign Dan Uggla to five year, 62 million dollar extension- This looks like it won’t end pretty.

Claim Anthony Varvaro off waivers- The Mariners love giving us bullpen arms.

May 11:

Signed Julio Lugo as minor league free agent

July 11:

Acquire Michael Bourn for Jordan Schafer, Juan Abreu, Paul Clemens, and Brett Oberholtzer- Wren escaped giving up top prospects. Looking like a masterstroke.

August 11:

Release Scott Proctor

Acquire Matt Diaz and cash for Eliecer Cardenas

Acquire Jack Wilson for Luis Caballero

October 11:

Trade Derek Lowe and cash to Cleveland for Chris Jones

December 11:

Release Brooks Conrad

January 12:

Sign Jack Wilson to one year, 1 million dollar contract

March 12:

Release Brandon Hicks

Trade Jairo Asencio to Cleveland for PTBNL/Cash

April 12:

Acquire Juan Francisco for J.J. Hoover

Sign Chad Durbin to one year, .9 million dollar contract

Sign Livan Hernandez to one year, .75 million dollar contract

July 12:

Sign Ben Sheets as minor league free agent

Acquire Paul Janish for Todd Redmond

Acquire Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson for Arodys Vizcaino and Jaye Chapman

#16

Games left against teams with winning records:

Braves: 16 (3 home/away with WAS, 3 at PIT, 3 home vs LA, 4 at SF)

Reds: 21 (3 home/away with STL, 6 home/3 away with PIT, 3 at ARI, 3 vs. LA)

Nationals: 22 (3 home/away with ATL, 4 home/3 away with STL, 3 vs LA, 3 at SF, ARI)

Pirates: 26 (4 atARI, 4 vs LA, 3 home/away with STL, 6 away/3 home with CIN, 3 vs ATL)

Giants: 29 (4 vs ATL, 4 at STL, 6 away/3 home with LA, 6 home/3 away with ARI, 3 vs. WAS)

Cardinals: 30 (4 vs SF, 3 vs ARI, 3 home/away with PIT/CIN,  4 away/3 home with WAS, 4 at LA)

Dodgers: 35 (7 home/2 away with ARI, 4 at PIT, 3 at ATL/WAS/CIN, 6 home/3 away with SF, 4 vs STL)

Teams the Braves need to lose:

1.  Nationals. The new wildcard playoff gives great emphasis to teams winning divisions (one less round to lose in) While in prior years Wild Card teams could coast, the Braves must do everything possible to catch Washington. It won’t be easy- the Nats load up on the Mets/Marlins/Phillies like the Braves- but it can be done.

2.  Dodgers. Biggest competition for the final wildcard spot. Them having more than twice as many tough games left is a blessing.

3. Cardinals. Same as the Dodgers, just a little bit further back. As we know, never count them out.

4. Pirates. The last series of the year, 3 in Pittsburgh looked like an easy opportunity to pick up three gimme wins to end the season. Now it’s looking like one of the most intriguing series of the entire baseball calendar. If the playoff started today, they’d being the way the regular season ended, with the Braves at the Pirates. If we have to settle for the wildcard, we would at least want the play-in game in Atlanta.

5. Reds/Giants. Standings fluctuate. It’s very possible we could be chasing them for wild card spots.

6.Phillies. I’m not counting them dead until they’re mathematically eliminated. Also it’s fun to see them lose

#15

All Star game photos. If you want to see the full collection, add me as a friend on facebook. Search Dayton Headlee. I'm the only one. 

So freaking cool.

First half highlights on the jumbotron

The front of the Braves!

The back of the Braves!

Uggla's special, he gets to stand in a different spot

Verlander pitching to Uggla

Homer!

Melky Cabrera homered. In the All Star Game. Still don't believe it. 

Chipper! 

I was jumping up and down screaming... this was the best picture of Chipper saluting the crowd I could get. :/

High fives for all!

Such a beautiful stadium. Go there. 

THE HOT CHICK SINGING GOD BLESS AMERICA IS LOOKING AT ME!

Neat picture of Bourn

Filthy Craig

Kimbrel'ing in Kansas City.

Chipper led the handshakes.

That worthless POS won the MVP award? Really?

#14

All Star Game Batting practice- again, more on my facebook page

Hey, that's me. 

First of many Chipper pics.

Chipper hugging Jeter to the far left. 

Jonathan Papelbon with his hands down his pants. 

Two of my childhood idols, Chipper Jones and Peter Gammons.

Happy Biurn

Chipper in the foreground, Uggla in the background. Way cooler than I intended

Chipper hugging Starlin Castro. 

Chipper and Wright watching Fookie. Odd on every level.

Mr. Uggla.

Bourn seemed quite happy.

Michael on MLB Network.

#13

Baseball Prospectus Event, Negro League Museum, FanFest- if you want to see more, add me on facebook.

Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks... two of my favorite writers. 

Hank Aaron,, Frank Robinson, and Dave Winfield at the Negro League Museum. Shook Hank's hand.

Mom taking part in the bunting simulator at  FanFest. Not quite Fredi level material. 

Melky display at FanFest. This was the nicest I could be. 

Uggla display in the all star locker room

I put a giant foam taco hat on Jeff Francoeur's head. Proud of that. 

#12

John Schuerholz was the most successful general manager in Braves history, and if he doesn’t hold the same title among all general managers in the history of the game, he’s at least in the discussion. His success on the field was undeniable- World Series wins in both Atlanta and Kansas City and 14 straight division titles. JS  was a master at pulling trades. He acquired Fred McGriff, Tim Hudson, Rafael Soriano, and Edgar Renteria (with the Red Sox paying his salary!) with the best player he gave up for the lot being Juan Cruz. But if you make enough transactions you’re going to screw up here and there. The three most glaring instances are the Teixeira, Wainwright, and Lofton trades.

My gut reaction was that the Wainwright trade was the worst for the Braves. Front end of the rotation starters are impossibly hard to find. Since I’m a nerd and love playing with stats, I figured I’d dissect the three trades and see which really was the worst for the Braves. I’ve used two metrics to grade each trade. The most tangible is WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which is the easiest and most recognized tool to assess players. It allows you to effectively compare a closer/starter from the late 00’s (Feliz) to a speedy centerfielder from the mid 90’s) Lofton. I’ve also tried to factor in effectiveness of trade in a team sense.

Here we go…

The Teixeira trade:

Schuerholz’s last trade was the worst. It was a move of desperation, likely JS trying to win one on his way out. The Braves traded their top three prospects and an intriguing young arm (Feliz) for one of the best hitters in the game. Teixeira absolutely mashed in his calendar year in Atlanta but the pitching staff crumbled around him. He was gone within 365 days. The bounty Atlanta sent (minus Saltalamacchia) would serve as the nucleus for two straight American League Championships and a team that was one out away from a World Series. The impressive 25.5 WAR they’ve brought to Texas will only increase as Harrison is rapidly improving and Feliz settles in to the higher value starting role.

As far as team need, this is exactly how the “dump a veteran and rebuild” is supposed to work. The Braves sacrificed their future thinking the 2007 team could win now, when in fact, they probably couldn’t. Had Teixeira been the one last piece needed, and the team won a championship, you can write off the massive loss as the cost of doing business. Teixeira’s two Braves teams finished third and fourth, and were several members of a pitching staff away from winning, let alone contending. It takes a lot to give up the top three prospects in a system, and a guy 15 months from impending free agency probably isn’t that.

Braves got:

Mark Teixeira 6.1

Ron Mahay .3

Braves gave up:

Elvis Andrus 13

Jarrod Saltalamacchia -.3

Neftali Feliz 4.4

Matt Harrison 8.4

Total Gain: 6.4                   Total Loss: 25.5                  Difference: 19.1

Miscellany: Braves got a draft pick in exchange for Mahay leaving that amounted to nothing, Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek for Teixiera. Rangers got random minor leaguers for Saltalamacchia

The Wainwright trade:

Adam Wainwright was the epitome of the 90’s-00’s Braves drafting strategy: big Georgia kid who is a crazy athlete and/or can throw a baseball real hard. So it seemed odd that after several strong minor league seasons (that saw him become a #20 prospect in the game) the Braves readily dumped him for a guy a year away from free agency. Drew, himself fitting the Braves mold, was a freakish athlete and considered to be a generational talent, was exactly what the Braves needed after losing Gary Sheffield. That said, it seemed a lot to give up for a guy a year away from free agency, heavily injury prone, and had no qualms about seeking anything less than top dollar. Drew had a monster year for Atlanta, setting career highs in several statistics, most importantly games and atbats. (Drew was the epitome of fragile). Wainwright quickly became a dominant front end of the rotation starter, finishing in the top three of Cy Young balloting twice, but not before recording the final out of a World Series championship.

Wainwright is the definition of a front end of the rotation starter and if not for Chris Carpenter would receive more recognition as an ace. He was a key contributor out of the pen for the 2006 Cardinals championship. He’s everything you want a toolsy young fire baller to turn in to. Marquis was a serviceable back end of the rotation guy, but for the most part the remaining players in this trade had no impact. Drew was excellent for the Braves, providing an incredibly high WAR for a rightfielder. The 2004 Braves won their division and it’s debatable whether they would have without Drew. Schuerholz would later admit the team knew if Drew performed to their expectations the Braves could not afford him. He performed exceptionally and left, leaving Wainwright in St Louis to rack up wins.

Braves got:

J.D. Drew 8.9

Eli Marrero 1.8

Braves gave up:

Adam Wainwright 20.4

Jason Marquis 1.9

Ray King .7

Total Gain: 10.4                 Total Loss: 23                     Difference: 12.6

Miscellany: Drew led the Braves to a playoff berth. Teixeira didn’t, and it’s hard to say Lofton did more than help the ’97 team.

The Lofton trade:

The context of this trade is important. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine were approaching free agency and the Braves needed to move some big contracts to make way. Furthermore, the Braves had a glut of outfielders- Justice, Grissom, Jermaine Dye, Andruw Jones, and Ryan Klesko. In a week span late in spring training the Braves traded three of their five outfielders. The crown jewel in return was Lofton, arguably the most dynamic player in the game. He was a perennial gold glove winner and had easily taken the last five stolen base crowns. His career never got off the ground in Atlanta as he battled hamstring injuries, causing him to steal 48 fewer bases than the year before and lead the league in caught stealing. His batting average and OBP were great, but Lofton missed 40 games and was not well received in the clubhouse. He left as a free agent after the season, returning to Cleveland and once again posting huge numbers.

The Braves clearly lost this trade on the surface as Grissom and Justice put up big numbers in Cleveland, leading them to within an out of a World Series (oddly just as the Teixeira deal did for Texas). The Would the 1997 Braves advanced farther without this trade? That’s debatable. Most importantly this allowed the Braves to afford to lock up Maddux and Glavine, bringing more wins than any of the players involved.

Braves got:

Kenny Lofton 5.5

Alan Embree 1.0

Braves gave up

David Justice 11.7

Marquis Grissom 2.1

Total Gain:  6.5                  Total Loss: 13.8                  Difference: 7.3

Miscellany: Indians flipped Justice for Jake Westbrook, who surprisingly gave their team more WAR than any of the players in the trade.

#11

All-Star tidbits. 

All Star statistics:

Michael Bourn- 0-1, K

Chipper Jones- 5-13, 3 runs, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, .385/.429/.615

Brian McCann- 1-5, 2B, 3 BB (MVP)

Terry Pendleton- 1-2

Dan Uggla- 0-4, 3K

Jack Wilson- 0-2

Tim Hudson- 1 IP, 0 runs, 0 hits

Jair Jurrjens- 1.2 IP, 0 runs, 1 hit, 1 K

Craig Kimbrel- .1 IP, 1BB

Jonny Venters- .2 IP, 0 runs, 0 hits, 1 K

Former Braves in the All-Star Game

Melky Cabrera

Rafael Furcal

Tony LaRussa

Former Braves minor leaguers in the All-Star Game

Elvis Andrus

Matt Harrison

Braves participating in the Home Run Derby

1985- Dale Murphy, 4, tied for second

1987- Ozzie Virgil, 2, second

1993- David Justice, 2

1994- Fred McGriff, 5, second

1997- Chipper Jones, 3

1998- Chipper Jones. 1

1998- Javy Lopez, 5

2000- Chipper Jones- 2

2003- Gary Sheffield, 4

2005- Andruw Jones, 5

Current Braves that participated for other teams

2008- Dan Uggla, 6

Current Braves to have played in the Futures Game

Juan Francisco

Jason Heyward

Mike Minor

Braves to win All-Star Game MVP

Fred McGriff- 1994

Brian McCann- 2010

Members of the Braves family to win the All-Star Game MVP
Don Sutton- 1977
Julio Franco- 1990
Garret Anderson- 2003
J.D. Drew- 2008

#10

A recent thread among the Wren-bashers is how Mike Trout could be a Brave right now, if not for Frank’s bungling. While in theory this is true, in practice it’s highly unlikely he ever could have had a tomahawk across his chest.

The logic goes like this: At the 2008 trading deadline the Braves traded Mark Teixeira to the Angels. When the Teixeira signed with the Yankees, the Angels received the Yankees 1^st round pick, #25 overall, which they used to pick Mike Trout.

Some have said that had the Braves not traded Teixeira, Trout would be a Brave. This line of reasoning supposes two things: that if the Braves held on to Teixeira they would have received the 25^th overall pick, and with that pick they would have picked Trout. The former is debatable and the latter is improbable.

The main issue facing bad teams with soon to be free agents they doubt they will sign is whether the haul of prospects they would receive via trade is of larger value than the potential draft picks. In brief, if a team loses a top tier free agent they receive the first round pick of the team that signed him as well as a supplemental pick between the first and second round. (there are some exceptions that I’ll get in to later) While it’s not a great package, it’s certainly better than nothing and enough to entice a team to not give a player away for pennies on the dollar.

The 2008 Braves were pretty bad, the only real stinker over the last two decades for the franchise. At the trading deadline they sat 9 games out of first and with a miserable pitching staff (Charlie Morton, Jo Jo Reyes, Mike Hampton and Jorge Campillo all started more than a dozen games). They weren’t going to win and Mark Teixeira made it clear he wasn’t going to settle for anything less than top dollar, something Atlanta could not afford. The Braves had to decide which was a better return: potential draft picks or something on the trade market.

The market for Teixeira- undeniably one of the top run producers in the game- was surprisingly weak. Not many contenders needed first basemen and everyone knew Teixeira would seek a jackpot, so no one wanted to give up the system for a two month rental. The Angels, a generally conservative team, paid the Braves the price, giving them young 1^st baseman Casey Kotchman and minor league reliever Stephen Marek, who never made the majors. Kotchman was for the most part a bust and traded for Adam LaRoche the next trading deadline. LaRoche put up two huge months in his second tour of duty with the Braves then left for Arizona.

So the question is this: Is a year of Kotchman and two exceptional months of LaRoche worth the 25^th overall pick? If it’s Trout, no way. But there’s no way to know the Braves would have picked Trout, or even got that pick, or any pick at all.

The draft pick compensation comes with snags. If a team with one of the 15 worst records signs a player, you get the second round pick instead of first. If a team signs two top players, the first round pick goes to the team the higher ranked player came from and the other gets the second. If a player is hurt, or his numbers inexplicably fall, you might not get any pick at all. In short, receiving compensation is just as much of a risk as trading for prospects.

In 2008, the same year Teixeira signed with the Yankees, the Brewers shipped a huge portion of their farm system to Cleveland for CC Sabathia. Their pretense was that both Sabathia and fellow ace Ben Sheets were up for free agency and if they left, the Brewers would have two first round picks and two supplemental picks to rejuvenate their system. Instead Sheets got hurt and brought them no return, while Sabathia signed with the Yankees, who also signed the higher ranked Teixeira, and Milwaukee only qualified for a second round pick. Two first and two supplemental turned in to one supplemental and one second. A similar debacle happened the next year with the Braves believing Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez would bring a similar bounty, but only brought a supplemental, second, and Jesse Chavez, thanks to Soriano not signing with another team and Gonzalez going to the last place Orioles.

Maybe if the Braves keep Teixeira he signs with the Yankees as happened in actuality. Or maybe he signs with the Orioles or Nationals (both heavy bidders near his home town that he expressed interest in) and the Braves get a second instead of a first. Or he signs with the Red Sox or Angels and we get a different pick.  Or maybe he breaks his leg or slumps badly and reconsiders free agency. And while we’re on the game of maybes, maybe Casey Kotchman lives up to his potential and is a decent return for Atlanta. It’s impossible to guess how those two months would have played our and/or alter what happened. There are too many what ifs to know where the draft pick would have been, or if we would have even gotten one.

The final premise is that the Braves would have selected Trout if they had the chance. (they actually did have the chance, at pick 7, but went with Mike Minor) The easiest game of “you’re an idiot” in baseball is to look at back drafts and shout “you should have taken so and so here!” Every team in every year in the history of the draft- even teams that have amazing luck- can go back to a round/year and say, “wow, we should have taken player x” there. The “they shoulda taken” logic can say that right now Albert Pujols or Craig Kimbrel should be on every major league team as they all passed on him in the draft. It’s a lot less fun to say, “Wow. The Angels did a really good job scouting that guy.”  20 teams had an opportunity to get Trout, but the Angels were the only ones smart enough to do so.

But even playing the hindsight game doesn’t necessarily make Trout a Brave. He was a high dollar, Northeastern high schooler, the exact opposite of what the Braves look for. It’s impossible to guess who the Braves would have taken at 25. The following are the five players drafter before and after Trout: Chad Jenkins Giovani Mier, Kyle Gibson, Jared Mithcell, Randal Grichuk, Eric Arnett, Nick Franklin, Raymond Fuentes, Slade Heathcott, and LeVon Washington. Franklin and Gibson are still decent prospects, but as of now, none of those ten players would provide more value than one year of  Kotchman and two months of LaRoche.

I’m not trying to imply the Kotchman trade was great or even the best option. The Braves badly lost both Teixeira trades (from Texas and to Anaheim). Given everything he knew at the time I think Frank Wren made the right decision at the time to trade Teixeira for Kotchman. If you say he should have let Tex play out the string and hope for draft picks, I respect that. But baselessly claiming Mike Trout would be a Brave now is unfounded and reckless. 

#9

                                         Record                   Diff          Perc.               Runs for/allow       

Braves all time:               10,078-10,066.      +12.         .500                 90,598-89,762                  

Mets all time:                    3,856-4,188           -332         .479                32,884-33,765                             

Phillies all time:                9,274-10,340        -1,066      .473                 87,818-93,086                           

Phillies notes:

Most losses among American professional sports

Most games below .500

Worst win/loss percentage among non expansion teams (only Tampa, San Diego, Seattle worse)

Most runs allowed of any team in MLB history

Tied with Cubs for fewest championships wins among teams in existence since World Series began

Phillies perspective

All of these numbers are despite the fact the last decade has been easily the best stretch in the history of the team. I knew the team had been good for their 5 year division championship stretch, but was surprised to see they finished in second the three years prior to that and won 85 games or more each of the previous four. As of the turn of the century the Phillies were far and away the worst team in baseball, but a good decade and a world series championship have brought them closer to the pack. Still, the overall numbers are bad.

Last year was a big year for the Braves historic number wise, as they reached a .500 record, 10,000 wins, and 10,000 losses. If in 1990 someone told you the Braves would reach 10k wins before 10k losses, you’d laugh. But 14 division titles can change that. Could the same happen to the Phillies? Probably not. The Braves largest hole was 500 games, less than half of Philly’s, and their 20 year reign of success is unmatched in baseball history.

So what would it take for the Phillies to get to phive hundred? (sorry, I kid)

If the Phillies never again- go 77-0 the remainder of this season and 162-0 every season from now on, they’d reach .500 in April 2018.

If the Phillies play 100 win ball (.617) every season (or they have a fantastic year every year)  they’ll reach .500 in July 2040.

If the Phillies play 90 win ball (.556) every season (or they have a very good year ever year) they’ll reach .500 in September 2071.

*Stats of end of the day July 6.