My gut reaction was that the Wainwright trade was the worst
for the Braves. Front end of the rotation starters are impossibly hard to find.
Since I’m a nerd and love playing with stats, I figured I’d dissect the three
trades and see which really was the worst for the Braves. I’ve used two metrics
to grade each trade. The most tangible is WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which
is the easiest and most recognized tool to assess players. It allows you to
effectively compare a closer/starter from the late 00’s (Feliz) to a speedy
centerfielder from the mid 90’s) Lofton. I’ve also tried to factor in
effectiveness of trade in a team sense.
Here we go…
The Teixeira trade:
Schuerholz’s last trade was the worst. It was a move of
desperation, likely JS trying to win one on his way out. The Braves traded
their top three prospects and an intriguing young arm (Feliz) for one of the
best hitters in the game. Teixeira absolutely mashed in his calendar year in
Atlanta but the pitching staff crumbled around him. He was gone within 365
days. The bounty Atlanta sent (minus Saltalamacchia) would serve as the nucleus
for two straight American League Championships and a team that was one out away
from a World Series. The impressive 25.5 WAR they’ve brought to Texas will only
increase as Harrison is rapidly improving and Feliz settles in to the higher
value starting role.
As far as team need, this is exactly how the “dump a veteran
and rebuild” is supposed to work. The Braves sacrificed their future thinking
the 2007 team could win now, when in fact, they probably couldn’t. Had Teixeira
been the one last piece needed, and the team won a championship, you can write
off the massive loss as the cost of doing business. Teixeira’s two Braves teams
finished third and fourth, and were several members of a pitching staff away
from winning, let alone contending. It takes a lot to give up the top three
prospects in a system, and a guy 15 months from impending free agency probably
isn’t that.
Braves got:
Mark Teixeira 6.1
Ron Mahay .3
Braves gave up:
Elvis Andrus 13
Jarrod Saltalamacchia -.3
Neftali Feliz 4.4
Matt Harrison 8.4
Total Gain: 6.4 Total Loss: 25.5 Difference:
19.1
Miscellany: Braves got a draft pick in exchange for Mahay
leaving that amounted to nothing, Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek for
Teixiera. Rangers got random minor leaguers for Saltalamacchia
The Wainwright trade:
Adam Wainwright was the epitome of the 90’s-00’s Braves
drafting strategy: big Georgia kid who is a crazy athlete and/or can throw a baseball
real hard. So it seemed odd that after several strong minor league seasons
(that saw him become a #20 prospect in the game) the Braves readily dumped him for
a guy a year away from free agency. Drew, himself fitting the Braves mold, was
a freakish athlete and considered to be a generational talent, was exactly what
the Braves needed after losing Gary Sheffield. That said, it seemed a lot to
give up for a guy a year away from free agency, heavily injury prone, and had
no qualms about seeking anything less than top dollar. Drew had a monster year
for Atlanta, setting career highs in several statistics, most importantly games
and atbats. (Drew was the epitome of fragile). Wainwright quickly became a
dominant front end of the rotation starter, finishing in the top three of Cy
Young balloting twice, but not before recording the final out of a World Series
championship.
Wainwright is the definition of a front end of the rotation
starter and if not for Chris Carpenter would receive more recognition as an
ace. He was a key contributor out of the pen for the 2006 Cardinals
championship. He’s everything you want a toolsy young fire baller to turn in
to. Marquis was a serviceable back end of the rotation guy, but for the most
part the remaining players in this trade had no impact. Drew was excellent for
the Braves, providing an incredibly high WAR for a rightfielder. The 2004
Braves won their division and it’s debatable whether they would have without
Drew. Schuerholz would later admit the team knew if Drew performed to their
expectations the Braves could not afford him. He performed exceptionally and
left, leaving Wainwright in St Louis to rack up wins.
Braves got:
J.D. Drew 8.9
Eli Marrero 1.8
Braves gave up:
Adam Wainwright 20.4
Jason Marquis 1.9
Ray King .7
Total Gain: 10.4 Total Loss: 23 Difference:
12.6
Miscellany: Drew led the Braves to a playoff berth. Teixeira
didn’t, and it’s hard to say Lofton did more than help the ’97 team.
The Lofton trade:
The context of this trade is important. Greg Maddux and Tom
Glavine were approaching free agency and the Braves needed to move some big
contracts to make way. Furthermore, the Braves had a glut of outfielders- Justice,
Grissom, Jermaine Dye, Andruw Jones, and Ryan Klesko. In a week span late in
spring training the Braves traded three of their five outfielders. The crown
jewel in return was Lofton, arguably the most dynamic player in the game. He
was a perennial gold glove winner and had easily taken the last five stolen
base crowns. His career never got off the ground in Atlanta as he battled
hamstring injuries, causing him to steal 48 fewer bases than the year before
and lead the league in caught stealing. His batting average and OBP were great,
but Lofton missed 40 games and was not well received in the clubhouse. He left
as a free agent after the season, returning to Cleveland and once again posting
huge numbers.
The Braves clearly lost this trade on the surface as Grissom
and Justice put up big numbers in Cleveland, leading them to within an out of a
World Series (oddly just as the Teixeira deal did for Texas). The Would the
1997 Braves advanced farther without this trade? That’s debatable. Most
importantly this allowed the Braves to afford to lock up Maddux and Glavine,
bringing more wins than any of the players involved.
Braves got:
Kenny Lofton 5.5
Alan Embree 1.0
Braves gave up
David Justice 11.7
Marquis Grissom 2.1
Total Gain: 6.5 Total
Loss: 13.8 Difference: 7.3
Miscellany: Indians flipped Justice for Jake Westbrook, who
surprisingly gave their team more WAR than any of the players in the trade.
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