Wednesday, August 29, 2012

#20

I was fortunate enough to be in San Francisco for the past weekend's series. Before each game I head down behind the dugout to watch batting practice and see if I can snag a couple autographs. Saturday's pregame seemed to be a bust- no BP and only a few spare parts signed. Just as I was about to head up to my seats the loud speaker announced there would be a parade around the warning track of participants from that day's Bark in the Park.

My first thought was, "great, there's going to be dog poo on the field." It turned out to be one of the coolest sights I've ever seen at a park; grown men and professional athletes fawning over chihauahas and laughing at dachsunds in baseball jerseys. A dugout railing kind of got in the way, but still snagged some pretty awesome pictures. 

 Beginning of the dog parade

Eddie's the first one out. 

 Eddie observed more than petted.

 He looks so serious. 

 Dog stroller lady. 

 Freddie joins Eddie, and as expected enjoys it.

 Reed's the first to pet.

 Medlen's the biggest kid on the team and naturally has the most fun.

 Venters joins the gang.

 Venters, Freddie, and Kris all having far too much fun.

 Freddie goes after some black labs.

 Cristhian shows up and laughs hilariously at a dog in a Giants uniform.

 Uggla (and the gun show) arrives. Even the macho man loves it.

 Of course the biggest, bulkiest guy goes after the fluffy dog.

 Uggla waves to the ladies. 

 Huddy shows up. He looked very stoic but you could tell he was enjoying himself.

 Meds loved all the dogs in costume. At least half of them had some sort of get-up.
 Enjoying themselves.

Laughing at a pitbull. 

 Kris and Huddy posed with a lady in a Justice jersey and her dog.

 This lady made me really wish I'd brought Chipper (my beagle).

So jealous of the Justice jersey lady.  

 Jason Heyward petting a dog with a panda hat. Life does not get better than this. 

Jason joined, stood by himself, and petted every single dog. 

My life is all downhill from here. 

 Kris was laughing at everything. Obviously an exuberant kid.

 Broad view.

The joy Jason was having was so cool to see. 

 Not sure what Jason is doing here. 

 Huddy was the last one out there and enjoyed himself.

Huddy makes a friend.

Saturday, August 18, 2012

#19

Last night’s 11 inning, 4-3 nail biter got me to thinking: it doesn’t seem like the Braves had played as many tight games as last year. Did some research on Baseball Reference (which is what all the cool kids do on a Friday night) and my hunch was confirmed. With almost exactly a quarter of the season left the Braves have already played more blowout games (defined as a margin of 5 or more runs- winning or losing) than last year. With 43 games left, they’ve played less than half the one run games they did in 2012 and less than a third of the extra inning games. After looking through several past seasons it seems last year was abnormally high for tight games and this year extraordinarily low.

Braves one run games: 2011: 55. 2012: 27.
Braves blowouts (5+ run differential): 2011: 32. 2012: 39.
Braves extra inning Games:  2011: 26. 2012: 7.


The Braves have had a lot fewer one run and extra innings and substantially more blowouts, yet they’re playing much better under all three scenarios. For what it’s worth, the Braves have the exact same record through 119 games as they did last year (70-49), so they’re doing a lot worse in games decided between 2-4 runs in 9 innings.

Winning percentage in one run games: 2011: .527. 2012: .630.
Winning percentage in blowouts: 2011: .531. 2012: .692.
Winning percentage in extra inning games: 2011: 538. 2012: .857.


The most important corollary to the Braves playing less close games is bullpen usage. When Kimbrel and Venters slumped at the end of the season Fredi Gonzalez was thrown under the bus for overusing them. But did he really? Considering the drastically higher number of close games (the type you need your best pitchers in) and last year’s complete lack of middle relievers (a tired Venters was more likely to get batters out than a fully rested Proctor/Linebrink/Sherrill) I think his usage wasn’t too far out of line. Sure the Braves lost the wild card by a game at the end in large part due to Kimbrel/Venters implosions in late September, but had Fredi used weaker pitchers earlier the Braves may not have had a lead to blow.

Fredi’s usage of O’Ventbrel in relation to tight situations isn’t really any different than it was last year, he’s just gotten lucky that there aren’t nearly as many close games. O’Flaherty and Kimbrel are on pace to pitch 20% less innings but have been used similarly in relation to close games. Venters will be down even more, largely due to a disabled list stint and struggles that led to him not being used.

Craig Kimbrel innings: 2011: 77. 2012: 45 (on pace for 61)
Eric O’Flaherty innings: 2011: 73.2. 2012: 42.2 (on pace for 57.2)
Jonny Venters innings: 2011: 88. 2012: 42