#19

Last night’s 11 inning, 4-3 nail biter got me to thinking: it doesn’t seem like the Braves had played as many tight games as last year. Did some research on Baseball Reference (which is what all the cool kids do on a Friday night) and my hunch was confirmed. With almost exactly a quarter of the season left the Braves have already played more blowout games (defined as a margin of 5 or more runs- winning or losing) than last year. With 43 games left, they’ve played less than half the one run games they did in 2012 and less than a third of the extra inning games. After looking through several past seasons it seems last year was abnormally high for tight games and this year extraordinarily low.

Braves one run games: 2011: 55. 2012: 27.

Braves blowouts (5+ run differential): 2011: 32. 2012: 39.

Braves extra inning Games:  2011: 26. 2012: 7.

The Braves have had a lot fewer one run and extra innings and substantially more blowouts, yet they’re playing much better under all three scenarios. For what it’s worth, the Braves have the exact same record through 119 games as they did last year (70-49), so they’re doing a lot worse in games decided between 2-4 runs in 9 innings.

Winning percentage in one run games: 2011: .527. 2012: .630.

Winning percentage in blowouts: 2011: .531. 2012: .692.

Winning percentage in extra inning games: 2011: 538. 2012: .857.

The most important corollary to the Braves playing less close games is bullpen usage. When Kimbrel and Venters slumped at the end of the season Fredi Gonzalez was thrown under the bus for overusing them. But did he really? Considering the drastically higher number of close games (the type you need your best pitchers in) and last year’s complete lack of middle relievers (a tired Venters was more likely to get batters out than a fully rested Proctor/Linebrink/Sherrill) I think his usage wasn’t too far out of line. Sure the Braves lost the wild card by a game at the end in large part due to Kimbrel/Venters implosions in late September, but had Fredi used weaker pitchers earlier the Braves may not have had a lead to blow.

Fredi’s usage of O’Ventbrel in relation to tight situations isn’t really any different than it was last year, he’s just gotten lucky that there aren’t nearly as many close games. O’Flaherty and Kimbrel are on pace to pitch 20% less innings but have been used similarly in relation to close games. Venters will be down even more, largely due to a disabled list stint and struggles that led to him not being used.

Craig Kimbrel innings: 2011: 77. 2012: 45 (on pace for 61)

Eric O’Flaherty innings: 2011: 73.2. 2012: 42.2 (on pace for 57.2)

Jonny Venters innings: 2011: 88. 2012: 42