#33

Let me preface this by saying I highly doubt any of this to happen and that by the time you read this, my entire thought bubble will have likely popped. But nothing symbolizes the hot stove more than coming up with theories destined to be debunked, so here I go.

I think the Braves could be a darkhorse suitor for Zack Greinke. Let me be clear, if Greinke wants top dollar (or anywhere near top dollar, for that matter) the Braves won’t be giving it to him. But that doesn’t mean we can’t snag him. It will require a great amount of cunning, strategy, and most importantly, a desire from Greinke to go against the norm.

The battle plan for getting the premier free agent pitcher on the cheap comes from an odd place: the Phillies. Two winters ago Cliff Lee was the premier arm available. The entire narrative was a bidding war between the Yankees and Rangers. He would go to the Yankees if he wanted money, Rangers if he wanted to be comfortable and close to home, pundits speculated. There was talk of a mystery team, but most assumed this was agent speak to shake a couple extra dollars out of a team.

In the end, the mystery team won. The Phillies sat on the sidelines, showing cautious interest, but refusing to get involved in the bidding war. Once the Yankees and Rangers had shot their proverbial loads with 6 and 7 year deals with 150 million dollars plus, Philadelphia swooped in, and offered Lee substantially less- 5 years, 120 million- and sold him not on money, but going to where he was wanted and could best thrive. It worked.

Granted, this entire scenario boils down to one tenuous factor: Cliff Lee was willing to leave 30 plus million dollars on the table. Most players and agents aren’t willing to even entertain the notion, let alone act on it. A couple million to go to a preferred destination, sure. But not 20% off the largest paycheck of their life. If Greinke is to be a Braves, he’ll probably have to leave an even greater share. The team labeled the favorite to sign him, the Dodgers, has as close to unlimited funds as possible.

There is adequate reason to believe Greinke might take less. He is a unique individual to say the least and there have been persistent murmurs he’d like to play for the Braves. His mental health history may persuade him to seek the lesser spotlight of Atlanta rather than  the “win at all costs” sideshow the Dodgers are seeming to become.

Frank Wren and John Schuerholz are usually fairly blunt when it comes to their free agent pursuits. They’ll tell you if they’re done or not interested. But they’ve been somewhat coy with Greinke. What I would do, and would not be surprised to see them do, is wait until Greinke has his final offers in hand then make their move. Something noticeably less than top dollar, but enough to make him happy (5 years, 90-100 million). Make a last minute pitch on why Atlanta is the best fit for him as a baseball player and person. It almost certainly won’t work, but it’s worth a shot.

Making room for Greinke in the budget wouldn’t be too difficult. The team could move Maholm and O’Flaherty and have close to 20 million available in this year’s salary, then use the pieces obtained in those trades and some of our own prospects to get a young, cheap bat for left field. 18-20 million a year isn’t ideal for a team with our budget, but it’s not outlandish. And unlike trading for a Justin Upton type, we wouldn’t have to clean out our farm system to get our man. As this last year’s playoffs showed, aces matter. Putting Greinke at the top of our rotation, giving him starts in Game 1, 4, and 7 of a playoff series is the most beneficial move the Braves can make.

But that’s not how the game (almost always) works. He’ll go to the Dodgers or whichever team throws the most money at him. I’ve just wasted a half hour writing this, and you’e wasted 10 minutes reading it.

But you never know…