#2

I get a lot of payroll related questions on @bravesamerica. I'm a nerd and have for years kept a running tally on various notebooks (I'm a nerd like that). Because I can't delve in to much depth in 140 characters, figured I'd expound upon it here. 

2012 Commitments:

Uggla                     13,2

McCann               12           +3.5 raise

Hudson                9              option

                total       34

2012- coming off the books

Chipper                13

Lowe                     10

Bourn                    6.75

Diaz                        2

Ross                       1.625

Hinske                  1.5

Wilson                  1

Durbin                  .9

Livan                      .75

                toral       37.525

2012 Arbitration eligibles                           projected             comp

Jurrjens                5.5                                        0                              non tender candidate   

Prado                    4.75                                     6                              Young

EO’F                       2.75                                   3.5

Heyward              .56                                         3.2                          Sandoval, Gardner

Tommy                 .54                                       4                              Masterson, Porcello, Gonzalez

Venters                .53                                         1.7                          Motte, Romo, Clippard

Medlen                .49                                          1.2

Cristhian              .49                                          1

                total       15.35     total (appx)        20.6

Assuming the options for Hudson and McCann are exercised, Jurrjens is released/non-tendered, and accounting (generously) for arbitration raises, the Braves have roughly 64 million committed to 2013. Given payroll stays the same, we have 25-30 million dollars to spend. This sounds like a lot of money, but when you consider we have two key offensive weapons to replace (Bourn, Chipper), almost an entire bench, and a crapload of arbitration raises on the horizon, it’s not much.

Braves have an amazing amount of flexibility given Uggla is the only player guaranteed beyond this season. This is generally good as it leaves options open. On the other hand, Heyward, Hanson, Kimbrel, Freeman, Beachy, Minor, Medlen, etc…. will be raking in huge arbitration figures over the next five years so it wouldn’t be wise to make too many long term commitments. Braves have rarely locked up young players like so many other teams have (McCann is the exception). It might be wise to  see what it would take to get some cost certainty/long term value on the young players mentioned. As other teams have shown, even if one or two busts, the saving on the rest could easily overcome this.

As for the question I get asked a dozen times a day… yes, the Braves could probably afford to keep Michael Bourn. Should they is another question. My answer would be no. Bourn is a Boras client and hasn’t given any indication he’s looking for anything other than top dollar.

Figuring out how much he’d get on the open market is tricky. There hasn’t been a player like him- a traditional leadoff hitter with excellent speed, OBP, and defense in recent memory. Closest was Juan Pierre for 5/45 with the Dodgers, but that was during a down winter and Bourn is a much better all around player than Pierre. Confusing things even more is a huge crop of center fielders on next year’s free agent market- Bourn, Victorino, Hamilton,  B.J. Upton, and a slew of corner outfielders that could probably shift if need be. If Bourn stays healthy and on his current torrid pace, my guess for his next contract would be 6-7 years and 80-100 million, although the possibility of a bidding war driving it higher is real. Sad truth is that the better Bourn plays, the more he prices himself out of our market.

I doubt the Braves would go anywhere near this. With the impending storm of arbitration cases, wanting to lock up our young studs, and losing Chipper/Prado/Hudson/McCann in the next two years, IU don’t see it happening. Furthermore, Bourn isn’t exactly young. He’ll be 30 when his new contract begins. The Braves have some money to spend, but also a number of holes. Does it make sense to give more than half that money to Bourn?

In 2016-17, when Freddie and Jason are approaching free agency, do we want 30+ million tied up in a 35 year old, one dimensional player? I say no. If Bourn is willing to make a team friendly deal with the Braves (4-5 years and 50-60 million), go for it. But I doubt that happening.